By M. Gessen
On the date of Donald Trump’s second inauguration, an air raid alert lingered in Odesa for a significant portion of the afternoon. Life continued as usual. Street vendors were busy selling coffee. Trams operated without interruption. At Pryvoz, the vast farmers’ market, there was a brief power outage, but it seemed hardly to impact trade; if traffic was sluggish, it was merely because it was a Monday. In the nearly three years since Russia commenced its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Odesa has experienced various phases: periods of shock and fear, followed by a phase resembling denial, and ultimately, adaptation.
Odesa is one of those cities — akin to New Orleans — characterized by a unique personality and a self-created mythology that fosters a passionate and joyful brand of patriotism. Odesa proudly boasts its stunning sea vistas, architectural beauty, delectable cuisine, multicultural essence, entrepreneurial spirit, and liberated mindset, but its distinguishing feature is its adeptness with words and the sharply funny quip.
Hanna Shelest, a military analyst, delivered one of those memorable comments early during the conflict. Reflecting on it, she recounted how an Italian journalist asked her — in the way male journalists tend to “ask” female experts while actually dictating their perspectives — “You do realize that you are going to have to concede something to Putin?” Shelest took a moment and replied, “You’re right. We’ll give him Lake Como.” It aptly highlighted the ridiculousness of the notion that Ukraine owed anything to Putin simply because he desired it.
I invited Shelest to watch Trump’s inauguration with me. We utilized the television in my hotel suite. At 43, Shelest and her parents, both 65, have been residing in a borrowed apartment since a Russian drone struck their building on November 14. She had just completed a live interview with a French television channel when she heard a muted explosion, followed by the chandelier in her office crashing down, narrowly missing her mother. It took them a few moments to grasp that parts of their home had been devastated and the adjacent apartment was ablaze. Nevertheless, they were fortunate: the drone did not explode. In the days that followed, once the fire was extinguished, Shelest and her mother employed a firetruck’s lift to access their apartment through a window to recover some clothing.
“That felt a bit strange,” Shelest remarked after Trump concluded his address. “I’m puzzled by the focus on sovereignty. Is there anyone endangering the sovereignty of the United States? It’s especially peculiar watching this from Ukraine, where we’re actively fighting for our sovereignty. It tends to diminish our struggle.” She expressed some surprise that Trump did not mention Ukraine, despite having previously pledged to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian war within a day. One might infer that Trump referenced Ukraine when he criticized the Biden administration for providing “unlimited funding for the defense of foreign borders.” She noted that the failure to mention Ukraine by name inadvertently signaled Japan, Taiwan, and even military contractors. “And Panama!” she exclaimed. “What did tranquil, peaceful Panama do?”
To me, everything sounded reminiscent. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long thrived on imagined grievances and fictitious threats to Russian sovereignty. Historically, such rhetoric has often prefaced his brutal warfare. Trump’s remarks about the Panama Canal, which he termed a “foolish gift that should never have been made,” echoed Putin’s characterization of Crimea, which he has repetitively framed as a gift from Nikita Khrushchev to Ukraine in the 1950s. True to form, Trump is outpacing his role model. No sooner had he broached the issue of wounded sovereignty than he vowed that “the United States will once again consider itself a growing nation — one that enhances our wealth, broadens our territory.” Totalitarian leaders seeking perpetual power invariably engage in expansionist wars.
This truth of totalitarianism suggests that Trump is unlikely to fulfill his promise of concluding the war in Ukraine. Putin requires this conflict.
Putin is also seeking a summit with Trump, which seems poised to occur this year. An encounter with the U.S. president would signify an end to the international isolation Russia faced after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
A meeting with Trump would not only demonstrate to Russians — and the global community — that Putin is once again a recognized figure internationally; it would also afford him what he has long sought: a discussion regarding the future of Ukraine that excludes Ukraine itself. In the week prior to Trump’s inauguration, various high-ranking Russian officials issued bold statements implying that Ukraine should not exist at all.
Throughout most of the last three years, the Kremlin has either outright rejected negotiations to end the war or made territorial demands that dramatically exceeded what Russia had managed to occupy. Should any discussions occur, Shelest argued, Russia would not pursue a valid solution but would aim solely to strengthen its own position.
Still, Shelest holds out hope that Putin will overextend himself. He seems to be heading in that direction. Last month, a Russian oligarch and Putin ally informed The Financial Times that Russia would merely pretend to assess Trump’s peace proposal for Ukraine before ultimately dismissing it. (In response, Trump adviser Keith Kellogg, appearing on Fox News, cryptically instructed the oligarch to “get back in your box.”) Previously, Putin has suggested that he regards Trump’s intellect as lacking. “He may feel tempted to humiliate Trump, to put him in his place,” Shelest noted.
Could that provoke Trump’s anger? “Maybe he will choose to portray himself as a victor,” Shelest speculated. Perhaps he will provide Ukraine with what the Biden administration has withheld: sufficient military support and the autonomy to employ it to significantly impact Russia. It’s quite a peculiar scenario to witness Trump’s tendency to act out of spite as potentially your country’s greatest hope.
An hour after Shelest departed my hotel room, the air raid sirens blared once more.
