By Amy Graff
Intense, destructive Santa Ana winds are anticipated to elevate wildfire risks in Southern California starting today and continuing through Tuesday, as the area remains critically dry due to lack of rain, while efforts to fully manage wildfires that have resulted in at least 27 fatalities and the destruction of thousands of homes are ongoing this month.
An offshore wind event is projected to impact Los Angeles and Ventura counties from Monday to Friday, with the highest threat expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.
These winds might reach strengths comparable to the severe gusts that exceeded 90 mph and exacerbated the catastrophic fires in Altadena and Pacific Palisades.
However, a key distinction with this wind forecast is that the winds are predicted to influence different areas, blowing with a more northeast-to-east direction as opposed to the north-to-northeast direction seen on Jan. 7, as indicated by meteorologist Rose Schoenfeld from the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, California.
The regions expected to experience the most intense gusts include the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys, the mountains and foothills of Los Angeles County, and large portions of Ventura County.
In addition to windy conditions, downed trees, power outages, and hazardous ocean conditions are likely to occur.
The ongoing offshore wind pattern will drain any remaining moisture from the vegetation, which is already alarmingly dry due to the “historically rare” rainfall in southwestern California, according to the weather service.
Relative humidity levels are expected to drop drastically, particularly on Tuesday, potentially falling to single digits. The combination of winds, dry fuels, and extremely dry air “could lead to rapid fire development with any new incidents,” Schoenfeld stated.
Southern California is highly susceptible to wildfires. Last winter, significant storms replenished the land, promoting lush vegetation. However, since the spring, the area has received minimal rainfall, leading to dried-out and combustible grasses and brush.
The rainfall gauge in downtown Los Angeles, a reliable measure for the county, has recorded only 0.29 inches of rain since May 1. This sets it on the path to achieving the lowest recorded rainfall for this period since records began in 1877.
At least 2 inches of rain are required to significantly reduce fire hazards, according to Brian Newman, a wildfire behavior analyst with Cal Fire. Referring to the upcoming weather forecast, he said, “We are hoping for no new ignitions or fire outbreaks — whatsoever.”
Santa Ana winds are those drying winds prevalent during winter, sweeping down from Nevada and Utah into southwestern California. Bringing dry desert air, they accelerate as they traverse the mountains in the Transverse Ranges, howling into the valleys and canyons.
These winds are projected to primarily impact the northern and western areas of Los Angeles County, along with most of Ventura County. At their strongest, isolated gusts of 45 to 65 mph are predicted along the coastline and in the valleys, while gusts reaching up to 80 mph may occur in the foothills and mountainous regions.
On Tuesday, warm conditions with afternoon temperatures ranging from the high 60s to low 70s, coupled with relative humidity levels in the teens and single digits, will escalate the fire risk.
Winds are expected to diminish on Wednesday, but could rebound on Thursday night into Friday, before likely calming down again by Friday afternoon.
The weather service communicates critical fire condition alerts through red-flag warnings, and has issued one for portions of Los Angeles County and much of Ventura County from 10 a.m. Monday to 10 p.m. Tuesday. A less severe fire weather watch has been issued from 10 p.m. Tuesday to 10 p.m. Thursday.
Following the severe windstorm earlier this month, the weather service escalated the severity of its warning to a “particularly dangerous situation” due to forecasts of isolated gusts reaching up to 100 mph.
Another warning may be issued, potentially for Monday through Tuesday.
Los Angeles has yet to receive any rainfall in January, but there is finally a possibility for some at the end of the month — although it appears it may be minimal.
“This is, frankly, discouraging news for the upcoming fire weather season here,” Schoenfeld remarked.
