By John Hollinger / The Athletic
A significant change has occurred in the NBA, and it seems to be flying under the radar.
Let’s analyze three plays from a game on January 6, featuring the Chicago Bulls and the San Antonio Spurs. Each play centers on Bulls center Nikola Vucevic trying to score against the towering 7-foot-3 center Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs.
— Just ninety seconds into the match, Vucevic resorts to his signature move, a pick-and-pop with Josh Giddey. Known for his outside shooting this season, Vucevic hesitates when facing Wembanyama, aware that the Spurs’ big man can swiftly recover and block his shot. Thus, Vucevic opts for a shot-fake and drives towards the basket for what he anticipates will be an easy layup, only to have Wembanyama block his attempt from behind.
— Two minutes later, Vucevic positions himself near Wembanyama in the low post, yet realizes that his usual jump hooks are likely to be rejected. Instead, he resorts to a shot-fake, which works momentarily. Wembanyama jumps, but recovers astonishingly fast; when Vucevic goes up for a layup, Wembanyama not only blocks it but captures it with his hands.
— A minute later, Vucevic receives a pass from Zach LaVine just a foot from the basket, seemingly having an open layup or dunk. However, he senses Wembanyama’s intimidating presence. Vucevic passes up the initial shot and attempts to dribble into Wembanyama’s body, to no avail. Instead, despite being so close to the basket, he chooses to meekly kick the ball out and reset the offense.
This play, which I term the “Hell naw,” illustrates Wembanyama’s unique ability. The center’s greatest strength is not merely the shots he blocks, but rather the shots that opponents are too apprehensive to take.
That night, Wembanyama recorded eight blocks, and although the Bulls ultimately triumphed over San Antonio, the overarching narrative of Wembanyama’s defensive prowess this season continues to build momentum.
These three plays reveal the dilemma of facing Wembanyama: How does one approach him? He can span the entire lane with a single leap, requires just a fraction of a second to prepare for his jumps (or second jumps), and boasts arms longer than a CVS receipt. Good luck scoring against him.
In merely his second season, Wembanyama averages four blocks per game, marking the highest rate in the NBA in nearly thirty years.
He averages 5.8 blocks per 100 possessions, and only eleven players in the entire league have played at least 500 minutes and have blocked even half of that amount.
Want to hear a more astonishing statistic? He recorded 127 blocks as of Sunday’s games — can you guess how many times he was called for goaltending?
Just four times. That’s all.
Unsurprisingly, the data reflects his influence. The Spurs surrender 7.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court and yield a significantly lower field goal percentage. From within 6 feet, opponents hit 50.2% of their shots against the Spurs with him as the nearest defender, in contrast to 62.9% at other times. This disparity is more pronounced than with any other player in the NBA who plays a substantial amount of games.
Through his efforts, Wembanyama has propelled the Spurs into the upper echelon of the league regarding defensive efficiency and has positioned them in the playoff hunt for the Western Conference. At just 21, he is the clear frontrunner for defensive player of the year after finishing second in last year’s voting. And that brings me to the crux of the story:
The youth are rising to prominence on defense.
This has not historically been the case in the league. Mastering defensive skills used to take years. However, as the game evolves to prioritize mobility and versatility, younger players find it easier to step into the NBA and make an immediate impact. Wembanyama exemplifies this change — unlike a decade ago, players aren’t attempting to overpower him within the paint.
While seasoned players still display elite defensive skills — with 31-year-old Rudy Gobert earning the defensive player of the year title for 2023-24 — we have witnessed a relatively swift transition in the past few seasons that has accelerated in 2024-25. (Note all ages in this article are as of February 1 for the respective season and all stats were compiled through Sunday’s games.)
For example, consider 21-year-old Dyson Daniels in Atlanta. Free from a crowded backcourt in New Orleans, this player, often referred to as the Great Barrier Thief, leads the league in steals and deflections during his third season, amassing 225 deflections, which is 87 more than the runner-up, Kelly Oubre Jr. His team has yet to reach the midpoint of its schedule until Saturday, yet Daniels is nearing a point where he could take a break for the year and still maintain his lead in deflections.
If there were a race for Eastern Conference defensive player of the year, Daniels’ fiercest competition would likely be Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers, age 23. As a critical component of the Cavaliers’ defense, Mobley has helped his team to an impressive lead in the East; he also finished third in defensive player of the year voting two seasons prior when Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Memphis Grizzlies won the award.
At 25, Jackson is not precisely a grizzled veteran. He, along with Wembanyama, Mobley, and Daniels, are among the four players honored as defensive players of the month this season. Thus far, every recipient of the league’s latest accolade has been 25 or younger.
This starkly contrasts with historical trends. In any of the six seasons from 2016 to 2021, no player under 22 garnered significant support for defensive player of the year, and the All-Defensive teams from 2017, 2018, and 2019 did not include a single player younger than 24. As recently as 2019, eight of the ten players on the All-Defensive teams were 27 or older.
This season, it’s conceivable that Wembanyama and Daniels could secure the first and second spots while being just 21 years old. Additionally, we may witness every first-team All-Defensive spot awarded to players 25 or younger when considering others like Mobley; Jackson; Jalen Williams, age 23, and Lu Dort, 25, from Oklahoma City; Amen Thompson, 21, Jaden McDaniels, 24, and Anthony Edwards, 23 from Minnesota; and Goga Bitadze, 25, from Orlando — and all of this while the Thunder’s shot-blocking Chet Holmgren, 22, remains sidelined due to injury.
Oklahoma City stands out as a prime example. The top eight players in minutes are all 26 or younger. Two of the standout performers include Williams, who has excelled as a 6-6 center and has remarkably become adept at rim protection despite his background as a point guard in college, and 21-year-old Cason Wallace, a guard with the highest steal rate on the team.
Even with a young roster, the Thunder are on track to become one of the best defensive teams in NBA history, if not the best. Their defensive rating of 103.9 sits 9.4 points below the league average; since the tracking of team turnovers commenced in the 1970-71 season, no team has ever concluded a season that far below the league average.
We have reached a juncture where the learning process is accelerated because raw talent outweighs traditional attributes like strength and technique. Consequently, we are witnessing remarkable advancements in player development by their second or third seasons.
Wembanyama, on an individual level, and the Thunder, as a team, stand as prime examples of this trend. However, a closer inspection reveals numerous instances of both types. The landscape has indeed shifted.
