Several years back, political observers focused on the Puerto Rican electorate in Florida observed something noteworthy—the Puerto Rican demographic served as a sort of “kingmaker” in statewide elections within Florida. You didn’t necessarily have to win the Puerto Rican vote, but maintaining competitiveness was essential. A failure to engage this group consistently indicated a losing campaign in Florida, tracing back to the mid-2000s. This was thoroughly documented by the James Madison Institute (JMI), and that research was refreshed following the 2022 election cycle.
The 2024 election cycle is now concluded, and more intricate data has begun to emerge. It comes as no surprise to even the most casual onlookers that Florida has transitioned from a tossup purple to a deep red state throughout this century. The state once associated with hanging chads has almost instantaneously become a MAGA stronghold.
The Puerto Rican vote in Florida has mirrored this trend. In 2016, Donald Trump secured only 26 percent (D+44) of the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida, which served as our best estimate for the Puerto Rican vote at that time. By 2020, the question evolved to specifically inquire about the Puerto Rican vote, and Trump had increased his backing to 31 percent (D+30). In 2024, the Democratic edge among Puerto Ricans decreased to D+13, with Trump capturing 44 percent of the Puerto Rican vote in Florida.
For those unfamiliar with polling/election terminology, the figure following the “plus” sign indicates how much better Democrats performed with Puerto Rican voters in Florida compared to their overall performance in the state. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris received 43 percent of the vote in Florida, suggesting that Puerto Ricans voting D+13 provided her with 56 percent of their support.
The trend is unmistakable—in three presidential elections, Trump’s support within Florida’s Puerto Rican community rose from 26 percent to 31 percent, then to 44 percent. That represents a significant shift in just eight years. What’s driving this change?
Part of the explanation lies in the fact that Puerto Ricans in Florida are more conservative than many Republicans might assume. The JMI study reveals that Puerto Rican Floridians are 49-44 percent pro-life, and Florida’s “amendment 4” abortion referendum appeared on the ballot. Puerto Ricans in Florida also attend church more regularly. There are grounds to believe that the Puerto Rican population leans more pro-life compared to Florida voters generally, as amendment 4 saw 57 percent opposition (60 percent was necessary for it to pass).
According to sources referenced in the JMI studies, 42 percent of Puerto Ricans in Florida identify as “conservative.” This figure actually surpasses the 37 percent of Florida adult voters who categorize themselves as “conservative.”
Osceola County, where Puerto Ricans make up 27 percent of the population, genuinely shifted red in 2024, with voters opting for Trump 50-49.
Another factor is the well-recognized tendency of Hispanic and Latino voters to lean toward Trump, influenced by a blend of economic arguments and a backlash against the “Latinx” label of ethnic fragmentation supported by the national consulting cadre within Democratic Party operatives. Ruy Teixeira stood nearly alone in this perspective, but until election night 2024, many in the media and party remained skeptical of his insights.
As highlighted by the JMI study, adopting at least a “respectfully agnostic” stance on the subject of Puerto Rican statehood has also proven beneficial. Since 2016, Trump has generally steered clear of this debate, and even managed to persuade Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) not to mention the “threat” of Puerto Rican statehood during his 2020 GOP convention address. The majority of Puerto Ricans residing in Florida exhibit patriotism and prefer not to see statehood removed as a possibility. Depending on how the question is posed, recent surveys indicate that Puerto Ricans in Florida have supported statehood by margins of 57, 66, or 77 percent.
While Cuban voters in South Florida may lead, the Puerto Ricans of central Florida seem to be following a similar path as prior waves of “immigrant” communities. Though Puerto Ricans are not immigrants by definition since they are American citizens, their voting patterns resemble those of the Irish, Italians, Poles, and others who were. They maintain a strong attachment to their ethnic heritage (which translates into robust support for statehood). However, as new generations are born in Florida, establish families, create businesses, buy homes, attend college graduations, and potentially drift from Catholicism to evangelical Protestantism, they tend to adopt a more Republican stance. It remains uncertain whether Republicans will manage to shift Puerto Ricans in Florida from blue to purple to red. Achieving this could potentially yield the ultimate reward: bipartisan support for Puerto Rican statehood.
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