By Eve Sampson
A 42-year-old man from Texas drove a pickup truck into New Year’s partygoers on Bourbon Street in New Orleans early Wednesday morning, resulting in 15 fatalities. An Islamic State flag was discovered in his vehicle, according to the FBI.
The jihadist organization, commonly referred to as ISIS, has established a horrific legacy characterized by violence and chaos globally. While it no longer possesses significant land in the Middle East, it continues to perpetrate terror across the globe and incite followers of its radical beliefs to commit their own acts of terror.
Authorities stated Wednesday they were investigating the suspect’s possible connections to terrorist groups. Experts in counterterrorism noted various indicative markers.
“By displaying an ISIS flag during the assault, the perpetrator intended to convey his allegiance to the ISIS agenda and might have aimed to inspire others to emulate his actions,” remarked Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism expert at the Soufan Group, a New York-based security consulting agency.
Background
The Islamic State is a Sunni Muslim insurgent organization that originated from al-Qaida in Iraq, which nearly thrust Iraq into civil strife before being quelled by local militias and U.S. forces.
By 2013, the group rebranded itself as the Islamic State. Under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s leadership, they capitalized on the chaos ensuing from Syria’s civil conflict to capture territory. In 2014, they took control of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, and proclaimed themselves as a caliphate — a polity governed by Islamic law.
During the spring and summer of 2014, the organization captured cities throughout Iraq and Syria, gaining infamy for kidnappings, sexual enslavement, and public executions. They also orchestrated and incited a wave of terrorist incidents throughout Europe.
In October 2019, President Donald Trump declared the elimination of al-Baghdadi, stating in a speech that he was “the founder and head of ISIS, the most ruthless and violent terror organization anywhere in the world.” Trump further claimed, “We obliterated his caliphate, 100%, in March of this year.”
Kurdish rebels aligned with the U.S. seized the last remnants of Islamic State-controlled territory.
Currently, experts indicate that the group is at its weakest point in Iraq but is showing signs of revival in Syria. ISIS continues to disseminate its extremist ideology through secretive cells and regional affiliates across the globe.
Recent incidents
Despite losing control of large territories, the Islamic State and its affiliates have executed a series of lethal attacks in the past year.
— In January 2024, the group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, known as Islamic State Khorasan, executed twin bombings in Iran during a memorial event for Qassem Soleimani, a prominent Iranian general killed in a U.S. drone strike four years prior. Over 80 individuals were killed, and many more were injured.
— A few months later, U.S. authorities attributed a deadly concert hall massacre near Moscow that claimed at least 137 lives to the Afghan faction.
— In July, the Islamic State took credit for a shooting in Oman that resulted in six deaths and approximately 30 injuries near a mosque.
The attacks in Iran and Oman specifically targeted Shiite Muslims, regarded as apostates by the Sunni-aligned Islamic State.
Directed, enabled, and inspired
Counterterrorism experts categorize Islamic State-related attacks into three major classifications:
Directed: At least five confirmed attacks in the 2010s are known to have been directly orchestrated by the Islamic State, executed by operatives who trained with the group in Iraq and Syria.
These instances were among the deadliest, including the coordinated strikes in Paris in November 2015, which ended 130 lives, and the bombings at the Brussels airport and subway in March 2016, which resulted in 32 deaths. Nonetheless, these constitute the minority.
Enabled: Analysts have also identified incidents of violence that were conceived and guided by Islamic State operatives whose only link to the attackers was through online communication.
In Paris in 2015, Amedy Coulibaly communicated with Islamic State operatives in Syria prior to storming a kosher grocery store, taking hostages, and killing four. Similarly, in Texas in 2015, two assailants initially thought to operate as “lone wolves” fired shots at a community center. The FBI later confirmed that they were in contact with the Islamic State via encrypted messages.
Inspired: Lastly, there are the so-called lone wolf attackers, who become radicalized through online propaganda and carry out attacks independently.
In 2016 in Nice, France, over 80 individuals lost their lives and hundreds sustained injuries when a man drove a 19-ton truck into a crowded area watching Bastille Day fireworks. The Islamic State claimed responsibility, though investigators indicated that the driver was self-radicalized, with no direct connection to the terrorist group.
In London in 2017, a 52-year-old British national drove a rented Hyundai SUV into pedestrians on Westminster Bridge, killing two and wounding at least 40 others. The following day, the Islamic State referred to him as a disciple and a hero for his actions executed in proximity to Big Ben, yet no evidence of direct involvement surfaced.
The Islamic State in Syria and Iraq
The removal of President Bashar Assad in Syria in 2024 has raised concerns that the group could regain a presence in the area. In July, the Pentagon cautioned that the frequency of Islamic State attacks in Iraq and Syria was on track to double compared to last year.
The collapse of the Assad regime has also incited conflict between U.S.-supported Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed rebels, leading to worries that ISIS could exploit this volatility.
According to the U.S. military, more than 9,000 Islamic State fighters are detained in over 20 facilities in Syria, where the U.S. has 2,000 troops and 2,500 in Iraq.
As chaos persists in Syria, the United States continues to target the group’s militants and bases through airstrikes.
Regional influence
The group’s affiliate in Afghanistan is behind several recent large-scale terror incidents. It is also in opposition to Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, which Islamic State Khorasan views as not strict enough.
A U.S. official stated last March that the Taliban had made some gains against the Afghan faction but struggled to mitigate attacks and dismantle urban cells.
U.S. officials have been tracking the group’s expansion in the politically unstable African Sahel region. Last March, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack on Niger’s military, reportedly resulting in the deaths of 30 soldiers.
An estimated 60% of Islamic State propaganda originates from sub-Saharan Africa, primarily from affiliate groups in Nigeria, Congo, and Mozambique, as indicated by a U.S. official in March.
