By Genevieve Glatsky and María Silvia Trigo
For over two months, Bolivia has experienced intense demonstrations. A longstanding political rivalry has escalated, leading to confrontations between the president’s supporters and his primary rival’s followers in the streets. Protests have obstructed the flow of goods, worsening fuel shortages. Some Bolivians have waited in line for days for gas.
This turmoil is part of a broader wave of instability affecting the Andean region of Latin America. Bolivia’s neighbors, Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia, are also grappling with significant political unrest, fostering deep frustration among their citizens.
At the heart of Bolivia’s dissent is a split within the Movement for Socialism, or MAS, a leftist party that has been at the forefront of the country’s political scene for the past two decades.
President Luis Arce and his former mentor Evo Morales are in contention for control of the party, both claiming they will be its candidate in the upcoming presidential elections next year.
The current chaos symbolizes a significant decline in power for both the leftist party and Morales, Bolivia’s first Indigenous president and a towering figure in the nation’s history. He served for 14 years — longer than anyone else.
Recently, Bolivia’s highest court determined that Morales is ineligible to run for a fourth term, seemingly eliminating any chance for his candidacy.
Legal experts are divided on whether Morales has any constitutional option to pursue another candidacy, but there is a general consensus that the justice system is so closely tied to politics that its decisions are difficult to trust.
“People have come to understand that the government is operating through this court,” remarked Veronica Rocha, a political analyst in Bolivia.
While protesters in La Paz, the capital, cried out about their hunger last month, Arce was elsewhere in the city, commemorating the court’s ruling against Morales during an Indigenous ceremony. (Although Arce is not Indigenous himself, a large Indigenous population in Bolivia has been pivotal for the MAS party’s strength.)
Morales has insisted on the social media platform X that he remains “the people’s first choice to rescue Bolivia.”
However, numerous Bolivians are weary of the protracted political strife, asserting it does little to improve their situations.
“The average Bolivian thinks these leaders have lost sight of common people and are more concerned with retaining power,” expressed Gustavo Flores-Macías, a government professor at Cornell University who specializes in Latin American politics.
What sparked the protests?
Morales came to power in 2006 as a socialist who lifted hundreds of thousands out of poverty — largely due to a surge in energy production — and focused on the Indigenous and rural communities in a country traditionally governed by a predominantly white urban elite.
However, he also faced accusations of oppressing dissenters, harassing journalists, and favoring the judiciary to ensure support. He disregarded constitutional amendments made by his own government that barred him from seeking both a third and then a fourth term.
After he fled during a contested election in 2019, claiming fraud, he endorsed Arce, his finance minister and protégé, to run in 2020.
Once elected, Arce distanced himself from Morales and endeavored to lead according to his own vision.
This decision ignited a power struggle with Morales, who returned to Bolivia immediately after Arce’s inauguration, seeking to regain influence.
Despite losing some popularity, many recent polls indicate that Morales still has significantly more support than Arce.
Currently, Morales may face imprisonment after being charged in October with statutory rape, accused of impregnating a 15-year-old girl in 2016, during his presidency.
Morales asserts that the allegations are politically motivated, rallying supporters in his home region of Chapare to protest.
Several key highways traverse this rural area, and weeks of protests have rendered them impassable, disrupting the transport of fuel and food across the nation of 12 million.
Why are there additional grievances?
Fuel shortages, escalating prices, and difficulties accessing U.S. dollars and imported goods have further incensed the populace.
During his time in the Morales government, Arce gained recognition as the architect of what was perceived as the country’s economic miracle, bolstered by a commodities boom driven by a flourishing natural gas sector.
However, when that boom collapsed, prices plummeted, and production decreased. Now, Arce’s government struggles to import fuel.
Silvia Choque, 36, a vegetable vendor in Santa Cruz, mentioned that her earnings have dropped to half of what they once were.
“I earn just enough to eat, but saving is impossible,” she stated.
Many Bolivians argue that the ongoing political chaos hinders any substantial efforts to resolve the economic crisis.
“The internal conflict within” the ruling party, Rocha noted, “has led people to feel there is no effective government.”
Although the roadblocks have been removed, new protests continue to arise from Bolivians frustrated with a fragmented government and a justice system that is frequently used against political adversaries.
What implications does this have for the 2025 elections?
While Arce has not yet declared his plans to seek reelection, many expect he will be a candidate. Morales, despite his denials, remains disqualified.
Numerous experts believe the fragmentation of the country’s main political party may lead to a shift in the political environment.
Currently, no opposition candidate or party possesses the broad-based support that the MAS party enjoys. Yet, Carlos Saavedra, a political analyst from Bolivia, emphasized that the electoral situation is fluid, and outcomes are difficult to forecast.
“Many candidates will vie for small portions of power,” he said. “I foresee an extremely fragmented and polarized election.”
