By Christopher F. Schuetze and Jim Tankersley
On Monday, the German government fell apart as Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in parliament, intensifying a leadership crisis across Europe amid increasing economic and security pressures.
The situation in Ukraine has worsened. President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to assume office in the United States, raising fresh concerns about European trade and military partnerships. Additionally, the French government experienced a collapse this month.
Consequently, Europe’s leading economy is currently under a caretaker administration, awaiting elections scheduled for early next year.
German legislators voted to disband the current government with a tally of 394-207, while 116 opted to abstain from the vote.
The government’s collapse, merely nine months before the scheduled parliamentary elections, marks a significant event in Germany’s history. The elections, now anticipated on Feb. 23, will represent only the fourth snap election in the past 75 years since the establishment of the modern state, indicating a shift towards more tumultuous and unstable political dynamics in a nation historically characterized by solid coalitions based on thorough consensus.
After his three-party coalition fractured in November, Scholz had little alternative but to initiate the extraordinary action of requesting the confidence vote, as months of internal conflict left him without a parliamentary majority to enact laws or approve a budget.
Political uncertainty in the country may persist for several months, with a new permanent government possibly not being in place until April or May.
Seven parties will participate in the parliamentary campaign with a feasible chance of winning seats, and certain fringe political groups, especially on the right, seem ready to make significant gains as reflected in opinion polls. Scholz is broadly anticipated to lose his position as chancellor, with the conservative Christian Democrats currently favored to lead in the polls.
The campaign is expected to be influenced by multiple issues that have caused turbulence in Europe in recent years. Germany and France, historically the two most dominant nations in the European Union, are entrenched in discussions about the best measures to rejuvenate their struggling economies, bridge widening social gaps, address voter concerns regarding immigration, and strengthen national defense.
They and their EU allies are cautiously monitoring Russia, where President Vladimir Putin has heightened threats regarding the potential use of nuclear arms amid Moscow’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
They are also grappling with their economic ties to China, which has emerged as a formidable competitor in many key industries, yet has not transformed into the thriving consumer market for European goods that leaders previously anticipated.
Furthermore, they are preparing for the onset of Trump’s new presidential term, who has threatened a trade conflict and the potential withdrawal of the United States from the NATO alliance, which has provided security for Europe for 75 years.
This combination of issues has created a politically unstable environment. French President Emmanuel Macron announced his fourth prime minister in a year on Friday and faces increasing calls for his resignation. Macron insists he will remain in office while seeking to mend the significant divides within his government concerning the 2025 budget.
Scholz’s administration confronted similar budgetary dilemmas, along with rising worries regarding the rebuilding of the German military to address an aggressive Russia and Trump’s critiques of NATO.
The timing is particularly unfortunate for Germany as it finds itself in the midst of a challenging winter election campaign, coupled with a political stalemate that could extend until a new government comes into power.
“This timing is incredibly problematic for the EU — basically, these multiple crises are impacting the EU at the worst possible moment, as the traditional driving force of the bloc is occupied with its own issues,” remarked Jana Puglierin from the European Council on Foreign Relations, in reference to Germany and France.
The conflict in Ukraine and the imperative to enhance Germany’s military — along with the associated costs — will likely be among the pressing matters taking center stage in the election campaign, alongside the struggling economy, deteriorating infrastructure, immigration concerns, and the rise of political extremes.
Lagging in opinion polls, Scholz intends to emphasize his cautious approach when providing military assistance to Ukraine, particularly regarding advanced offensive weaponry.
Under Scholz’s leadership, Germany became the largest European supplier of military aid to Ukraine, as reported by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institution. However, he prefers to highlight his choice not to supply the long-range missile system Taurus. Many in Berlin perceived the chancellor’s conversation with Putin in November as a move to engage voters apprehensive about Germany’s reluctant involvement in the conflict.
During what was promoted as his inaugural campaign speech last month, Scholz admonished his chief rival, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, accusing him of provoking Russia with comments implying he would increase military support for Ukraine should Russian forces persist in attacking civilian infrastructure.
“I can only advise: Be cautious! One should not gamble with Germany’s security,” Scholz stated.
This strategy seems to be yielding results. Since the dissolution of the three-party coalition, Scholz’s personal approval ratings have seen a slight increase. Nevertheless, his party remains at about 17% in the polls, approximately half of the projected support for the conservatives.
Scholz will need to exert considerable effort to convince voters to grant him another opportunity. Currently, Merz, a veteran presence in the political arena, is widely predicted to succeed him as chancellor, given his party’s strong polling advantage.
