By Megan Specia and Mark Landler
Irish voters have set the scene for the restoration of the grand coalition government that has governed since 2020, resisting the anti-incumbent tide that has swept through the United States and Europe.
As the vote counting progressed on Sunday evening, two days after the polls closed, indications pointed to Ireland’s two principal center-right parties performing sufficiently well to initiate coalition discussions — a process that may require weeks to clarify the government’s complete structure.
Sinn Féin, the leading Irish nationalist party, appeared poised to finish slightly behind the ruling parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, in a lackluster outcome that may leave it in opposition for additional years.
On one level, the vote was a reaffirmation of continuity, yielding results reminiscent of four and a half years ago. However, the stability in Ireland’s political center concealed turmoil at the extremes, where concerns over immigration bolstered attempts by various independents and other insurgent candidates.
With none of Ireland’s parties expected to secure enough seats for a clear majority, a phase of intensive political bargaining was an anticipated outcome of the election.
The excitement of the election was largely attributed to Sinn Féin, which had seemed poised to govern before experiencing a downturn in polls earlier this year. While the party recovered some lost ground during the voting, it fell short of a significant breakthrough and appeared likely to remain on the fringes.
The outcomes in Ireland, emerging at the close of a record year of global elections, highlighted how Irish voters are engaged in larger political trends while their nation remains somewhat unique.
With a thriving economy, Ireland did not succumb to the anti-incumbent fervor that unseated governments in Britain and the U.S. Yet, the political fragmentation across Europe has also impacted Ireland, leaving its three major parties unable to govern independently.
Since the establishment of the modern Irish state in the early 20th century, the two traditional parties — Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — have alternated in governance. However, after the last general election in 2020, neither party secured a sufficient majority to rule alone, compelling them to form a first grand coalition, which also included the Green Party.
This alliance arose from both parties’ refusal to collaborate with Sinn Féin, which had claimed the popular vote for the first time. Once the political arm of the Irish Republican Army, Sinn Féin had historically been marginalized, viewed as unacceptable by the political establishment. Nevertheless, the 2020 election demonstrated a significant base of support for the party and solidified its status as the largest opposition party in the Irish Parliament.
Before this election, the leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael reaffirmed their exclusion of Sinn Féin, even as polls indicated a relatively equal level of public support among the three parties.
With nearly three-quarters of the seats announced Sunday evening, Fianna Fáil secured almost 22% of first-preference votes, Fine Gael around 21%, and Sinn Féin roughly 19%.
Ireland’s proportional representation voting system, which allows voters to rank their preferred candidates, often shields it from the dramatic fluctuations seen in other democracies — and this election reflected that once more. However, the fragmentation of parties and a restless electorate paved the way for a diverse array of fringe candidates.
In Dublin, for instance, Gerry Hutch, a figure described by prosecutors as the leader of a crime family, narrowly missed out on winning a seat. Known as The Monk for his ascetic lifestyle, Hutch ran in a district troubled by anti-immigrant riots the previous year. (Sinn Féin’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, secured her position in the district.)
On Saturday, in Dublin’s central vote-counting facility, numerous poll workers sorted through lengthy paper ballots, which were delivered in sealed brown envelopes and spread out on long tables for tallying.
The rustle of paper ballots, the scratch of pens on tally sheets, and the conversations among activists discussing the results in real time resonated throughout the expansive convention center hall.
“It’s particularly captivating to witness democracy in action,” remarked Gerry Kearns, 67, who was volunteering to oversee the ballot counting. “And here, it’s fascinating to observe the count because of the transferable vote system.”
Kearns, a geography professor at Maynooth University, conversed with a Sinn Féin activist about the unfolding vote trends. They exchanged friendly farewells as they parted ways.
Lisa Keenan, an assistant professor of politics at Trinity College Dublin, noted that in the lead-up to the election, voters clearly indicated that the rising cost of living was their chief concern, an issue resonating with electorates across Europe this year.
Throughout the brief three-week campaign period, the Irish electorate displayed a striking degree of stability in its opinions of the major parties. As the campaign neared its end, however, Fine Gael’s support faltered due to a misstep by the party’s leader, Simon Harris, who serves as taoiseach, or prime minister.
Following a tense encounter on the campaign trail with a woman who protested that his government was not offering sufficient support to those working with disabled individuals, as she does, Harris was compelled to apologize.
Nonetheless, since taking over the leadership role in April after his predecessor resigned unexpectedly, Harris, 38, had been perceived as revitalizing the party, and when he called the early election last month, Fine Gael had seen a resurgence in support.
Half of Fine Gael’s previous parliamentary members chose not to run in this election, presenting a challenge for the party’s quest for voter support. For a potential returning coalition government, some immediate challenges lie ahead.
The election of Donald Trump in the United States could jeopardize one of the foundations of Ireland’s recent prosperity — its status as a low-tax European hub for American multinational corporations — should Trump implement policies he is considering, such as imposing tariffs or attempting to repatriate funds that flow from U.S. companies into Ireland.
Sinn Féin’s persistent struggle to enter the government further emphasizes the relative calm surrounding its core issue: the unification of Northern Ireland with the Irish Republic. While a solid majority in the south supports unification, according to polls, it did not emerge as a prominent topic during the campaign, overshadowed by economic concerns and worries about immigration.
