By Ben Hubbard
For years, Hezbollah assured the Lebanese populace that it was their sole protector against Israel. The group boasted about its formidable arsenal and elite commandos ready to deploy lethal “surprises” in the event of war. Additionally, it promised its base that a regional coalition of Iran-backed militias would rush to its aid in combat.
Those narratives have now been dismantled.
Following a 13-month conflict, Hezbollah accepted a cease-fire with Israel on Wednesday, which it will struggle to frame as anything but a defeat to anyone outside its most staunch supporters.
The 60-day cease-fire, intended to pave the way for a more enduring peace, follows three months of relentless Israeli assaults that have left the organization in turmoil.
Intense intelligence infiltration allowed Israel to eliminate numerous high-ranking officials, including Hezbollah’s secretary-general who served for 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel targeted the group’s most loyal areas, forcing hundreds of thousands to evacuate and destroying many villages, leaving countless individuals without immediate shelter.
Moreover, Hezbollah’s fateful choice to act unilaterally by launching rockets at Israel triggered a conflict that escalated into Lebanon’s deadliest war in decades, resulting in its isolation both nationally and regionally, while Lebanon faces a steep reconstruction expense.
Many of Hezbollah’s adversaries, both domestically and abroad, express hope that the war has significantly weakened the group’s capacity to exert influence over the national political framework. However, it remains uncertain whether other Lebanese factions will feel emboldened to confront it.
Hezbollah continues to maintain thousands of fighters in Lebanon and retains the allegiance of a significant portion of the nation’s Shiite Muslim demographic.
After the cease-fire was established on Wednesday, thousands returned to inspect the destruction in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Many honked their horns, waved yellow Hezbollah flags, and claimed that as long as Hezbollah survives, that is a victory.
“We are feeling optimistic and we see victory,” stated Osama Hamdan, who was clearing debris from his water pump shop. His family’s residence suffered damage requiring more than $5,000 in repairs before they could return, he noted.
“None of this matters,” he remarked. “What matters is the victory and the resistance. We will support them to the end.”
However, the impact of Israel’s assault on Hezbollah will likely resonate throughout Lebanon and the broader region for years to come.
At the apex of its strength before the conflict began, Hezbollah was viewed as such a military threat that both Israel and the United States feared a war with the group could ignite widespread chaos and devastate Israel.
Yet as the conflict intensified, Hezbollah’s allies did not provide effective assistance, undermining the credibility of Iran’s support network. Concurrently, Israel escalated its attacks with great speed—neutralizing thousands of Hezbollah fighters by detonating wireless devices and rigorously bombing their communities—rendering the group unable to respond with the fierce retaliation it had long threatened.
Achieving the cease-fire necessitated significant compromises from the group.
Hezbollah began its assault on Israel in solidarity with Hamas after that organization executed a deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. For months, during which Israel and Hezbollah exchanged gunfire across the Israel-Lebanon border, Hezbollah’s leadership remained adamant that hostilities would only cease if Israel halted its strikes on Gaza.
This condition is absent from the new cease-fire agreement, allowing Israel to persist in its objectives against Hamas.
Additionally, the new cease-fire grants a monitoring role to the United States, which Iran and Hezbollah have long denounced for its unwavering backing of Israel. Analysts suggest that Iran and Hezbollah would only agree to such oversight if they were in dire need of halting the conflict.
“This highlights how alarmed Iran is about its newfound vulnerability and the impending Trump administration,” remarked Paul Salem, a Lebanon specialist at the Middle East Institute, a think tank.
Hezbollah’s presence along Israel’s border has also deterred Israeli strikes on Iran due to fears of reprisal from Hezbollah against northern Israel. This threat has been substantially diminished, leaving Iran with a weakened defense. While Iran and Israel have exchanged direct fire in recent months, Iran has not responded to Israel’s latest assaults, seemingly to prevent an escalation into a wider conflict.
“The unaddressed concern is the significant disparity between Israel and Iran,” Salem observed. “Israel has the capacity to attack Iran at will, whereas Iran cannot reciprocate.”
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is likely to confront numerous economic, social, and political obstacles if the cease-fire endures.
For years, it defended its stockpile as essential for national defense against Israeli aggressions. Now, it must address the grievances of fellow Lebanese who resent how it single-handedly led the country into an expensive war that many opposed.
“Hezbollah is apprehensive about internal dynamics within the country,” stated Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “Many people are dissatisfied with the situation, including not just adversaries but even those within Hezbollah’s sphere.”
According to government figures, the war has displaced 1.2 million individuals, predominantly Shiite Muslims from Hezbollah’s strongholds in southern Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and the eastern Bekaa Valley.
Many are currently taking refuge in areas populated by other sects—Sunni Muslims, Christians, and Druze—many of whom are unwilling to have them stay and fear Hezbollah members could attract Israeli aggression.
Addressing the needs of the displaced and repairing the aftermath of the conflict will present a significant challenge for Lebanon, whose economy was already in distress before the fighting erupted, and for Hezbollah, whose supporter base has been the most adversely affected.
A report by the World Bank this month estimated that nearly 100,000 housing units were either damaged or destroyed and about 166,000 jobs were lost due to the war. It assessed the total costs of physical damage and economic losses at $8.5 billion.
In light of Iran’s economic difficulties and Hezbollah’s dwindling popularity with other Middle Eastern nations, it remains uncertain who might provide financial assistance for reconstruction, and under what terms.
Nonetheless, Hezbollah’s remaining leaders have already started portraying the cease-fire as a triumph, claiming that their fighters continued launching missiles, rockets, and drones into Israel while bravely confronting the Israeli troops that crossed into southern Lebanon.
“From this point forward, we affirm that the resistance will persist, endure, and carry on,” declared Hassan Fadlallah, a Lebanese parliamentarian affiliated with Hezbollah, in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday.
