Just a bit more than a week ahead of election day, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke that quickly gained traction. During Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden that same evening, Hinchcliffe remarked, “there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” This remark ignited a strong, collective reaction from Puerto Ricans, who criticized the former and potential future President’s campaign for its perceived racism and insensitivity.
Notable Puerto Ricans, including stars like Bad Bunny and Jennifer Lopez, as well as influential figures such as the Archbishop of San Juan, took a determined public stance against the comments. Major news outlets referred to the backlash as Trump’s “October surprise,” and the heightened support from Puerto Rican leaders increased optimism among those forecasting a Harris victory.
However, the election resulted in a decisive Republican victory, marking the highest Latino support for the GOP since the Bush administration. Trump outperformed Harris among Latino men by a remarkable 12-point margin, and while Harris did capture the Latino women’s vote, the Democratic advantage in this demographic decreased by 17 points. What caused this transformation?
Departing from identity politics
Historically, Puerto Ricans, like many Latino groups, have been perceived as a singular voting bloc. Even though Puerto Ricans traditionally leaned Democratic, recent patterns indicate a movement towards issue-centric voting rather than party allegiance. This change was prominently evident in the 2024 election, where numerous Puerto Ricans opted for Republican candidates, motivated by economic issues, inflation concerns, and dissatisfaction with matters like border security. This reflects a broader trend of Hispanic voters moving away from identity politics to make decisions based on financial considerations.
A survey from the Pew Research Center conducted in September highlighted the economic anxieties fueling this change: 85% of Latinos indicated that the economy was ‘very important’ in determining their presidential choice. An UnidoUS Exit Poll following the 2024 Presidential election corroborated this, revealing that 46% of Puerto Ricans identified cost of living and inflation as their top voting concern, with 36% citing jobs and the economy. Participants surveyed by the Pew Research Center also emphasized healthcare, gun control, and immigration as significant issues. Latino voters, similar to other voter demographics, were motivated by practical concerns in their decision-making. Trump’s strategy of engaging Latinos like other voters, focusing on the cost of living, the economy, and border issues, seemingly resonated with many within the community.
A chart illustrating the percentage of Latino voters who deemed each pivotal issue ‘very important’ when selecting which candidate to support in the 2024 Presidential election. Data compiled from a September 2024 Pew Research Center Survey.
The significance of Puerto Rican Voters in key states
In the campaign’s concluding days, both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned in Reading, Pennsylvania—a locality where over a third of the populace is Puerto Rican—emphasizing this demographic’s significance. In Berks County, where Reading is situated, the Republican campaign appears to have influenced voter behavior, with 55.8% favoring Trump according to a CNN exit poll.
As per 2023 ACS data, 5.6 million Puerto Ricans reside in the mainland U.S., with substantial populations in key states: 1.2 million in Florida, nearly a million in New York, and close to half a million in Pennsylvania. In Florida, Osceola County, which has a 27% Puerto Rican population, shifted Republican, with Trump surpassing Harris by over 13,000 votes compared to Biden’s previous lead. Furthermore, counties with significant Puerto Rican populations like Hampden and Hillsborough, which had previously leaned Democratic, favored Trump this time, indicating a change among Latino voters.
A table displaying how key counties with high Puerto Rican populations voted in the 2024 Presidential Election. Data sourced from U.S. Census ACS 1-year estimates 2023 and CNN 2024 Presidential Election Exit Polls.
Consequences
With 36.2 million Hispanic Americans currently eligible to vote—more than double the 14.3 million eligible in 2000—the sway of Latino voters has greatly increased, presenting both opportunities and obstacles for the political parties. For Democrats, the 2024 election acted as a significant wake-up call; it revealed the pitfalls of taking for granted that Puerto Ricans and Latinos form a reliable base, underscoring that these voters anticipate their economic and social issues to be addressed more directly. Many Latino voters, akin to all other Americans, prioritize critical matters like inflation, employment, and immigration. For Republicans, this alteration presents an opportunity to engage with a rapidly expanding demographic by addressing these pressing issues and achieving inroads among Puerto Rican and wider Hispanic communities.
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