By Pamela Paul
As a forewarning of potential future actions, supporters of President-elect Donald Trump on Friday shared a video statement he made last year regarding transgender topics on the platform X. In this video, he vows to eliminate federal support for initiatives that endorse gender transition at any age and to prohibit gender-affirming healthcare for minors. Any medical facility that conducts gender surgeries on youth would face exclusion from Medicare and Medicaid. Additionally, he plans to revoke federal funding from schools that tell students they “might be trapped in the wrong body” and to introduce legislation barring “men from competing in women’s sports.”
This was not solely a single video — throughout his campaign, Trump consistently conveyed his agenda, achieving a decisive victory.
In the final weeks of the election, Republican campaigns invested over $65 million in advertisements mocking candidates like Kamala Harris for backing “taxpayer-funded sex changes for inmates” and “illegal immigrants,” culminating with variations of the message: “Kamala Harris is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
At various campaign rallies, Trump criticized the notion of transgender girls and women participating on female sports teams, suggesting that children were undergoing gender surgeries in academic settings.
“Can you imagine being a parent and your son walks out the door,” he remarked during a rally in Wisconsin, “and you say, ‘Jimmy, I love you dearly, have a fantastic day at school,’ only to have your son return after a severe operation?”
Why did Trump and his supporters allocate such significant attention and resources to an issue that seemingly impacts a small cohort compared to pressing voter priorities like immigration, the economy, crime, abortion, and democracy? Possibly because it was effective. Harris’ leading super political action committee noted a 2.7 percentage point shift toward Trump among viewers of these advertisements.
Clearly, this strategy helped to depict Harris as a radical leftist, misaligned with the majority of Americans. However, as individuals opposing Trump reflect on the situation, it warrants consideration as to why these advertisements and rallying calls found resonance.
This is not indicative of most Americans being bigots, haters, or anti-LGBTQ+; many voters, including liberals and Democrats, have differing views from those expressed by Harris and the Democratic Party on transgender policies. Surveys indicate that while most voters are largely in favor of current rights and protections for transgender individuals, they harbor nuanced opinions on other policies related to what is commonly labeled as trans rights.
Trump’s claim that children are receiving gender transition surgeries in classrooms is clearly far-fetched. Nonetheless, his statements may have resonated with those opposed to school districts concealing from parents when their children adopt new gender identities. As reported by The New York Times last year, one mother of a 15-year-old inadvertently found out that her child’s public school had hidden the fact that her child had been using a new name and the boys’ restroom for six months.
In recent years, elementary schools have begun introducing concepts of gender identity and the possibility of being born in the wrong body. However, a Washington Post poll revealed that 77% of Americans oppose teachers discussing these concepts in kindergarten through third grade, and over half are against them being addressed even in middle school.
The Democratic Party’s platform includes a commitment to uphold gender-affirming healthcare for minors. For those unfamiliar with the topic, this may appear to involve therapy aimed at helping children feel comfortable in their own bodies; in practice, it often means allowing kids to adopt new names and pronouns, and in many cases, facilitating their bodies to resemble the opposite sex. This process could entail puberty-blocking medications, cross-sex hormones, and in some instances, surgery. Between 2019 and 2023, more than 14,000 children in the U.S. underwent gender-related medical interventions.
While many European nations have begun to retreat from the gender-affirmation model, evidence suggests that advocates of this approach in the U.S. have allowed political considerations to influence scientific findings.
To illustrate, one prominent proponent of gender-affirming care suppressed government-funded research because she feared it might be “weaponized” against her objectives, as reported by the Times. Concurrently, Rachel Levine, appointed by President Joe Biden as the assistant secretary of health and human services, sought to influence a transgender organization to remove age limits from its proposed surgical guidelines, including mastectomies and hysterectomies for minors, arguing that such limitations would empower political adversaries, per recently disclosed court documents. Following this revelation, the Biden administration issued a statement opposing such surgeries for minors.
Nevertheless, the Department of Health and Human Services continues to assert that gender-affirming care is “essential” for youth and “has been demonstrated to lead to positive outcomes for transgender and nonbinary children and adolescents” — even though the most thorough review of research encompassing all major American and global studies on this matter revealed little evidence supporting this claim. Regardless, all leading American medical organizations persist in endorsing gender-affirming care.
In my reporting, I have spoken with numerous parents of gender-dysphoric children, predominantly liberal and Democrat, who expressed feelings of betrayal by Democrats and the Biden administration concerning this issue. They resent being labeled “anti-trans” for questioning whether it is appropriate to simply accept their children’s assertions about their gender, especially since these children frequently grapple with other mental health challenges.
The number of individuals identifying as transgender remains small but is increasing rapidly. While surveys indicate that around 1% of American adults identify as transgender or nonbinary (declining to identify as either gender), one poll suggests that approximately 5% of adults under 30 now identify as such.
Democratic politicians, the media, and elite institutions often refer to our “evolving understanding of sex and gender.” However, a majority of Americans still believe that gender is determined by biological sex at birth.
This is not due to Americans being “uncomfortable” with the existence of transgender individuals or needing to adapt. Approximately 44% of Americans already know someone who is transgender. Indeed, polls indicate that support for progressive strategies concerning gender identity has diminished as they have become more widely publicized and understood. According to Pew, 60% of Americans in 2022 supported the view that gender is established by sex at birth, up from 54% in 2017. Opposition among Democrats to allowing trans girls and women to compete in women’s sports rose to 48% in 2023, compared to 41% in 2021, according to Gallup, while independent voters’ opposition increased from 63% to 67%.
Instead of attempting to steer Americans in a direction they evidently resist, Democrats would be wiser to advocate for nuanced and compassionate alternatives. Some party members are recognizing the importance of this perspective.
“Democrats often spend excessive time attempting to avoid offending anyone instead of being candid about the challenges many Americans encounter,” Seth Moulton, a Democratic representative from Massachusetts, mentioned to the Times last week. “As a father of two little girls, I do not want them to face unfair competition from a male or formerly male athlete, yet as a Democrat, I feel hesitant to express that.”
For a long time, Democrats have positioned themselves as advocates for healthcare, scientific advancement, women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and education. This is the party dedicated to caring for families and addressing their needs, particularly concerning pressing economic issues that leave many Americans feeling cornered. However, in regard to transgender matters specifically, one approach to demonstrate that Democrats are attentive to their constituents would be to welcome a wider array of perspectives.
Trump has already indicated how extreme his stance could be, potentially moving toward bans on gender-related healthcare for adults. Transgender individuals understandably hold concerns about what a second Trump administration could mean for their lives.
The nature of Trump’s vitriol may embolden genuine transphobes and intensify broader animosity toward and discrimination against transgender individuals as well as gay men and women. The LGBTQ+ rights movement rightly fears regression. This is indeed a distressing period.
Democrats should actively combat these trends and ensure that everyone, regardless of their gender identity or sexual orientation, is respected and safeguarded under current laws. Rather than doubling down on beliefs and policies that are misaligned with the best medical evidence, Democrats and all supporters of transgender rights ought to advocate for a sensible approach from their government, educational institutions, mental health professionals, and healthcare providers. Vulnerable individuals are depending on it.
