Even though the U.S. Constitution did not empower the citizens of Puerto Rico to elect the President on November 5, Puerto Ricans were still able to vote to redirect the U.S. territory towards a new path, away from their present undemocratic situation, and they took that opportunity.
In a referendum that involved options for statehood and independence (with or without a “free association” element), Puerto Ricans opted for statehood, achieving a remarkable 56.87% of the votes. Independence followed in second place, also reaching a new high, with 30.84% of the votes cast.
Support for statehood has consistently been strong on the Island; however, independence had never previously climbed beyond 5% of the vote before 2024. Acknowledging that the loss of U.S. citizenship would likely be met with disapproval by the overwhelming majority of Puerto Ricans, analysts are curious about the reasons behind the increased support for Independence.
To understand this shift, one must first examine the ballot. The definition provided for independence was accurate, but it was, by necessity of limited space on the ballot, brief. It lacked nuance regarding the real-world consequences that breaking away from the U.S. would entail. Examples were omitted, and it was unclear what would be lost—or gained. Therefore, let’s break down what the ballot conveyed to voters about independence and elaborate on what they might expect in an independent Puerto Rico.
Defining independence
Each of the three options on the ballot included definitions in both Spanish and English. Here’s the essence of what the ballot conveyed for Independence:
1. Puerto Rico is a sovereign state that possesses full authority and responsibility over its territory[.]
2. Puerto Rico controls its own fiscal and monetary policy, immigration, trade, and [diplomatic] relations[.]
3. [B]irth in Puerto Rico or connection to individuals with statutory United States citizenship…will cease to serve as a basis for United States nationality or citizenship, except that individuals with such United States citizenship retain the right to United States nationality and citizenship for life … as delineated by Federal law.
4. Puerto Rico will no longer be considered a possession of the United States regarding the Internal Revenue Code.
5. The Constitution and laws of the United States will no longer be applicable in Puerto Rico[.]
For the complete text of the ballot language, click here.
Citizenship
If Puerto Rico becomes independent, U.S. citizenship and immigration legislation—affecting Puerto Ricans and others—will still be controlled by the U.S. Congress, “as provided by Federal law.” Puerto Rico would lack authority to prevent changes to U.S. legislation. No nation can do so. Simultaneously, existing U.S. immigration and citizenship regulations would likely undergo scrutiny as a new neighboring country with over 3 million current U.S. citizens is established.
In clear terms, U.S. citizenship for individuals born in Puerto Rico could be revoked by a future Congress if Puerto Rico gains independence, and U.S. citizenship for new generations of Puerto Ricans would be particularly uncertain. Even those currently possessing U.S. citizenship, either on the Island or in the states, lack clearly defined constitutional rights. Puerto Ricans hold statutory citizenship. At a bare minimum, new protocols would need to be put in place, and recent trends have not favored an expansive or immigrant-friendly climate. A glance at the Dreamers illustrates this point.
U.S. citizenship for future generations born in an independent Puerto Rico is even more doubtful. Considering the current political climate, descendants of U.S. citizens born in an independent Puerto Rico should brace for more stringent eligibility criteria compared to existing federal laws. The incoming Trump administration is also likely to oppose the continuation of birthright citizenship, complicating matters for Puerto Ricans wishing to give birth in the states to secure U.S. citizenship for future offspring.
Especially given the unique characteristics of Puerto Rico’s statutory citizenship, even those with current United States citizenship and the legal right to retain United States nationality and citizenship for life “as provided by Federal law” would still need to observe subsequent Congressional actions. And then those of the next Congress. Any Congress can amend the law at any given moment.
Taxation
The ballot informed voters that under independence “United States citizens and United States businesses in the nation of Puerto Rico will be subject to United States Federal tax laws[.]” This is accurate.
However, it is also accurate that U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico will lose access to U.S. Federal tax laws. Though most individuals residing in Puerto Rico currently do not pay federal income taxes, it is true that a significant number of U.S. citizens pay no income tax at all, partly due to refundable tax credits.
In 2021, Congress completely expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for Puerto Ricans, enabling residents to receive a $1,000 tax refund each year for each child. Congress also allocated up to $600 million annually to the Puerto Rican government to match a local $200 million Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC).
The ballot clarified to voters in Puerto Rico that the “laws of the United States [would] no longer apply in Puerto Rico” under independence. As a newly sovereign nation, EITC and CTC regulations would no longer remain in effect, resulting in working families losing access to the related financial assistance.
Statehood Would Decrease Taxes for Working Families in Puerto Rico
Federal Benefits vs. Foreign Aid
As U.S. law is nullified, Puerto Rico would be abruptly removed from U.S. programs including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and nutrition assistance. There may be a gradual transition away from these benefits, but a decline will occur.
Supporters of separation often present the post-independence relationship between Puerto Rico and the United States in overly optimistic terms. A recent piece in Current Affairs envisions that “while independence would involve the forfeiture of billions in federal aid, that could be offset by an economic transition strategy as reparations for over a century of colonialism.” They provide no specifics about such a plan, which is logical, as historically, the United States has never initiated a program of this magnitude. Given present budget constraints, the prospects for a generous payout appear grim.
Furthermore, as an independent entity, Puerto Rico would lose representation in Congress to advocate for the theorized economic transition plan, let alone maintain U.S. citizenship or tax exemptions.
It is conceivable that the future Republic of Puerto Rico could receive foreign assistance from the United States; however, what could Puerto Rico reasonably expect? Jamaica, a Caribbean nation with a population comparable to Puerto Rico’s, obtained $65,552,665 in 2022. In contrast, Puerto Rico received $6.5 billion, roughly ten times the amount received by a similar foreign nation.
What’s Next?
The language on the ballot was not misleading, yet it also failed to provide all the specifics about independence. Some of these details are, of course, unpredictable. Could the new nation of Puerto Rico negotiate a compensation plan with Congress? Would U.S. citizens residing in the states retain their citizenship, perhaps contingent upon confirming residency stateside? There currently exists no expedited process for this. The precise answers to these inquiries remain unknown before the vote, but the current information does not evoke a positive outlook for a newly established nation.
Given the history of ambiguous and confusing definitions, it is plausible that ongoing misinterpretations have fueled the unexpected popularity of independence, even though it ultimately did not prevail. As discussions about Puerto Rico’s status continue to progress and evolve, it will naturally take time to understand the tangible consequences of all available options.
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