By Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Michael Schwirtz
The Russian military is putting together a force of 50,000 soldiers, which includes North Korean personnel, as it readies to initiate an offensive focused on regaining territory that Ukraine has captured in the Kursk region of Russia, according to officials from the U.S. and Ukraine.
A fresh evaluation from the U.S. suggests that Russia has gathered this force without withdrawing troops from Ukraine’s eastern front — their primary battleground priority — enabling Moscow to continue operations on multiple fronts at once.
Russian forces have been gradually regaining some of the territory lost to Ukraine in Kursk this year. They have conducted attacks on Ukrainian positions using missile strikes and artillery, but have not yet launched a significant assault, according to U.S. officials.
Ukrainian officials anticipate this attack, which will involve North Korean troops, to occur in the coming days.
Currently, North Korean soldiers are training alongside Russian troops in the western region of Kursk.
The Russian-North Korean assault is imminent as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to office with the declared aim of swiftly concluding the conflict. Trump has remained vague on how he intends to approach the situation, but Vice President-elect JD Vance has proposed a plan allowing Russia to retain the territory it has seized in Ukraine.
Some U.S. military and intelligence officials have expressed increased pessimism regarding Ukraine’s overall chances, noting that Russia has been progressively gaining ground in both Kursk and eastern Ukraine. They attribute these setbacks partly to Ukraine’s inability to address critical shortages in troop strength.
President Joe Biden has consistently supported Ukraine, advocating for Congress to approve billions in aid and enabling U.S. military and intelligence agencies to provide essential insights to bolster Ukraine’s war efforts.
One Western official indicated that Ukraine’s unexpected advance into Kursk in August stretched its forces across the eastern battlefields, making them susceptible to Russian offensives. However, that official, along with U.S. officials, noted that Ukraine still maintains a robust defense in Kursk and might manage to hold their ground for the time being.
Officials participating in this discussion opted for anonymity to address sensitive intelligence evaluations and to offer a transparent assessment of Ukraine’s battlefield conditions.
Western and Ukrainian authorities characterize the arrival of North Korean troops as a significant escalation following over two years of conflict.
U.S. officials report that North Korea has dispatched over 10,000 soldiers to fight alongside Russia in Kursk. These troops don Russian uniforms and are supplied by Moscow but are likely to operate in their own separate units, as noted by U.S. defense officials.
Ukrainian authorities claim that Moscow has provided the North Korean forces with machine guns, sniper rifles, antitank missiles, and rocket-propelled grenades.
In addition, U.S. officials say Russia has been training the North Koreans in artillery, fundamental infantry strategies, and crucially, trench clearing. This kind of training implies that at least part of the North Korean contingent will participate in frontal assaults on entrenched Ukrainian defenses.
“We fully anticipate that DPRK soldiers could engage in combat,” Sabrina Singh, the deputy press secretary at the Pentagon, remarked on Thursday, referring to North Korea’s official designation, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
U.S. officials are uncertain regarding the extent of constraints that President Kim Jong Un’s government has placed on the deployment of its forces. Nonetheless, U.S. sources expect these troops to be actively involved in combat.
A Ukrainian functionary stated that the North Korean troops have been categorized into two units: an assault division and a support division, designed to secure areas retrieved from Ukrainian control.
While North Korea boasts a large military, it has not engaged in ground combat for decades, unlike Russia. However, the soldiers North Korea is sending are regarded as its finest, coming from the elite 11th Corps, which includes special operations troops.
Ukrainians seized hundreds of square miles of land with minimal resistance, but Russia has gradually eroded these gains — reclaiming approximately half the territory lost — and now seems poised to undertake far more expansive operations.
U.S. officials believe that Ukrainian forces will be challenging to dislodge, and that both Russian and North Korean troops will likely suffer significant casualties, akin to Russia’s experiences in eastern Ukraine. U.S. and British military analysts estimate that Russian troop deaths and injuries are averaging more than 1,200 per day.
North Korean soldiers will operate as light infantry, lacking armored vehicle support. Current Ukrainian strategies of artillery bombardment and drone assaults have proven highly effective against unprotected Russian forces.
That being said, if Russia starts to gain traction, it might not restrict itself to the border and could attempt to push Ukrainian forces back even further. It remains unclear whether the North Korean government will authorize its troops for prolonged operations in Ukraine or if their involvement is intended solely for the Kursk counteroffensive, according to U.S. defense officials. Some analysts suspect that North Korea’s orders could limit their troops to the border while Russian forces deepen their advance into Ukraine.
U.S. officials stated they are unsure how effective the North Koreans would be, given their lack of combat experience.
George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, noted that despite this inexperience, North Korean forces show strong organization. “One aspect where they might outperform the Russians is in coherence and discipline,” he remarked.
Rob Lee, a Russian military expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, who has recently returned from Ukraine, commented, “Thousands of added infantry can shift the balance in Kursk. These soldiers are typically younger and in superior physical condition compared to many Russian contract soldiers.”
In exchange for deploying troops, U.S. officials believe North Korea hopes to acquire rocket and missile technology from Russia, along with diplomatic backing. However, Ukrainian officials suggest that North Korea may also be looking to toughen its troops through combat exposure and learn from the strategies being employed in the war.
U.S. defense officials remain uncertain if North Korea plans to send additional reinforcements. A senior Ukrainian source indicated that Ukrainian intelligence estimates North Korea could contribute as many as 100,000 troops.
Russia is facing difficulties in meeting its monthly recruitment target of around 25,000 soldiers, amid rising casualties, making the North Korean forces essential.
Barros described the North Korean troop deployment as an “alternative pipeline.”
“This is likely not a singular event of sending 10,000 soldiers,” he said. “It appears to be a method for consistently bringing in thousands, potentially up to 15,000 troops each month.”
