By Kellen Browning
President-elect Donald Trump has claimed victory in Arizona, securing its 11 electoral votes, The Associated Press reported Saturday evening, marking yet another swing state reversal and elevating his final Electoral College count to 312. With Arizona in his win column, Trump has successfully captured all seven battleground states this election cycle.
Trump’s triumph over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona signifies a return to the state’s historically conservative alignment: it has favored a Democrat only on two occasions since the 1940s, including in 2020, when Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump by just above 10,000 votes.
However, Democrats seemed to face significant challenges from the very beginning in Arizona, a border state where the electorate was vocal about their frustrations regarding the migrant situation and serious economic issues related to housing costs and rising prices for everyday items, such as groceries and fuel.
Given the Republican majority in the state, Harris needed to sway a notable contingent of Arizona independents and moderate Republicans to cast their votes for her. There were indications she might have achieved this: Independents, particularly white women residing in the Phoenix suburbs, had been leaning more towards the left, and Democrats anticipated they would be galvanized by the need to protect reproductive rights and block Trump from a second term.
Ultimately, it was Trump who assembled a successful coalition, aligning the state’s Republicans while also capturing a sufficient number of independent voters. Polling data consistently indicated he was also gaining traction among Latino voters, a vital and rapidly growing demographic in Arizona that Democrats had counted on in their coalition.
Harris appeared to have a more effective ground operation in Arizona, with her campaign alongside allied groups, such as unions, efficiently engaging in door-to-door efforts to mobilize voters. In contrast, Trump’s strategy relied significantly on external committees to carry out these tasks, a method that had not been thoroughly tested by Republicans.
Nonetheless, conservative organizations like Turning Point seemed well-equipped, canvassing throughout the summer and autumn and encouraging less frequent conservative voters to submit their ballots early — a notable shift from 2020, when Trump was more vocal in criticizing early voting. Republicans felt optimistic about the early voting figures this year in Arizona, hopeful they would be sufficient to inhibit a late Democratic surge.
