By Damien Cave and Catherine Porter
With Donald Trump’s decisive electoral win on Tuesday, the globe braces for another four years filled with uncertainty and a focus on “America First” policies that may redefine the foundations of the global economy, enhance autocrats’ power, and undermine the safety net of U.S. support for democratic allies.
There was little substantial discussion on foreign policy during the campaign, yet Trump has expressed multiple intentions that — if realized — would significantly alter America’s interactions with both friends and foes. He has vowed to conclude the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours, a statement many interpret as suggesting a cessation of U.S. assistance to Ukraine, potentially favoring Russia.
More generally, he has signaled his desire to steer the world’s most powerful nation towards greater isolationism, heightened tariff aggression, explicit hostility towards immigrants, increased demands on security partners, and a diminished focus on global issues like climate change.
Many foresee that these changes could surpass any repercussions witnessed since the onset of the Cold War.
“It accelerates the already significant trend of America looking inward,” remarked James Curran, a professor of modern history at the University of Sydney. “Allies will need to protect the multilateral structure while it still exists — they must hope that America re-engages.”
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated to Sky News that he believes Trump possesses “a natural affinity for Italy.” He expressed confidence that the tycoon’s new administration would facilitate productive cooperation.
In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed optimism on Wednesday regarding “good relations” with the United States, despite Trump’s recent threats of imposing massive tariffs on her nation. “There’s no reason to be concerned,” she stated. “Mexico has always emerged victorious.”
In Kenya, Ndindi Nyoro, a member of the legislature aligned with President William Ruto’s coalition, shared his belief that Trump’s economic measures could prove beneficial for African nations grappling with rising inflation and overwhelming debt.
“Republican policies have historically favored Africa & the Global South,” Nyoro posted on Facebook.
India has also been monitoring the U.S. election with interest, confident that as the most populous country and fifth-largest economy, it would remain a valuable ally against China.
Preparing for a shift back to transactional diplomacy
The radical positions Trump took during his campaign — including exorbitant tariffs on imports, mass deportations, and a tough stand against alliances and conflicts perceived as messy or expensive — have already left many countries feeling uneasy.
China, currently facing its own economic struggles, anticipates the implementation of broader and elevated tariffs than those during Trump’s initial presidency and those continued under President Joe Biden. Shi Yinhong, an international relations scholar at Renmin University in Beijing, mentioned that a second Trump administration would “inevitably erode global confidence and esteem towards the United States.”
Few of China’s neighbors view Trump’s victory with enthusiasm, particularly given their apprehensions about Beijing.
South Korea and Japan expect increased pressure to contribute more for the presence of U.S. troops stationed there. Trump has committed to requiring South Korea to pay $10 billion yearly, whereas it currently pays just above $1 billion.
Vietnam, which has seen its trade deficit with the United States soar as businesses shift from China to evade tariffs, may also be subject to retaliatory tariffs similar to those Trump threatened against Mexico.
Concerns about global security
Diplomats in Asia have expressed fears that Trump’s presidency could lead to an escalated Chinese pressure on Taiwan, if not an outright invasion of the self-governing island. They believe China might calculate that Trump would be reluctant to engage militarily for a democracy he has labeled as “stealing” the microchip industry from the U.S.
For Ukraine, Trump’s return signifies a cloud of further danger. His assertion that he could facilitate an immediate end to the conflict, coupled with his amicable ties with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, has raised concerns that he might impose unfavorable terms on the Ukrainians by withdrawing U.S. military assistance.
In Russia, there were indicators of satisfaction over Trump’s victory, even as the Kremlin refrained from swiftly extending its congratulations. Dmitry Medvedev, a top aide to Putin, remarked that Trump was favored for his cold, business-like manner.
Trump, according to Medvedev, “disdains spending money on various freeloaders,” referring to Ukraine’s president.
Apprehension among democratic allies
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated last week that he “recognizes all the risks” involved with a Trump victory. However, on Wednesday he tweeted on the platform X that he valued “President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ philosophy in global diplomacy.”
Yet many of Ukraine’s allies in the region are “deeply unprepared for a Trump resurgence,” according to Georgina Wright, a European politics specialist at the Montaigne Institute in Paris. Experts and officials across the continent foresee a trade conflict, an increased financial commitment to NATO and military assistance from Washington, a Trump-induced rise in anti-democratic populism, and an elevated risk of Russia expanding its territorial ambitions.
Trump has hinted that he might disregard the NATO article which mandates collective defense, a principle that has kept Europe largely peaceful and democratic over the years. During his previous campaign, he mentioned he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to nations that have not contributed adequately to the alliance.
While officially congratulating Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz convened on Wednesday morning to strategize Europe’s response to a transactional leader whose nation is not only a crucial security ally but also the largest trade partner of Europe. “We will strive for a more unified, robust, and sovereign Europe in this new landscape,” Macron stated on X.
For some, a positive shift
Conversely, in certain nations, Trump’s vigorous approach has sparked a sense of optimism.
In the Middle East, the United States has often been seen as ineffective — failing to end persistent conflicts or establish a solid cease-fire. To some, Trump signifies a potential breakthrough, perceived as staunchly pro-Israel yet also as a capable negotiator.
The far-right factions in Israel were celebrating Trump’s victory even before the final polls closed, believing he would align with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in efforts to resolve the conflicts in Gaza and against Iran’s allies in the region. Once Trump’s win seemed certain early Wednesday, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultranationalist Israeli minister of national security, joyously proclaimed “Yesssss” on social media.
Palestinians criticized U.S. backing for the ongoing wars, showing a blend of fear and hope for what a new administration might offer. Hamas stated, “Palestinians are looking forward to an immediate halt to the aggression against our populace.”
In Lebanon and some surrounding Arab nations, a second Trump term appeared to be cautiously accepted.
“He’s unpredictable, but at least he’s assertive,” Anthony Samrani, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour, articulated what he described as the prevailing sentiment toward Trump in the Middle East.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has suppressed dissent to craft an ethnocentric, illiberal democratic system in his nation, was among the most ardent supporters of Trump’s victory, congratulating him for “his tremendous success,” labeling it “a crucial win for the world!”
Consequences for immigration
Perhaps the most widespread and immediate effect of Trump’s victory on the global stage may pertain to immigration.
He has assured that one of his initial actions in office would involve mass deportations of millions of undocumented immigrants in the United States. Detractors fear that this could soon lead to regular flights sending returnees not only to Mexico but also to India, El Salvador, and the Philippines.
