By Kellen Browning
As the election approached its frenzied conclusion, canvassers in Phoenix and Scottsdale, Arizona, representing the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House encountered a spectrum of political responses while going door to door.
Among those they met was a liberal newcomer from Kansas, eager to oust former President Donald Trump and his party affiliates. Another was a Republican woman who felt conflicted and expressed she would make her choice at the last moment. Additionally, there was an older conservative couple who favored the former president but were open to discussing why they might also support a Democratic candidate for Congress.
This diversity of opinions exemplifies why Arizona’s 1st Congressional District — wealthy, educated, and filled with moderate Republicans who once admired Sen. John McCain — is critical for the future control of the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a narrow advantage. These voters, along with others in similarly undecided suburbs in battleground states, might also be pivotal for the presidential election.
This scenario has put Rep. David Schweikert, a Republican aiming for his eighth term, and his Democratic opponent, Amish Shah, in a competitive position to win over these voters. Both parties view the race as tightly contested and are strategizing on how to appeal to suburban voters come Election Day.
“This is the type of race that Democrats must secure if we wish to reclaim the majority,” remarked Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist involved with an external group financing efforts for Shah.
Shah’s campaign, along with its allies, including prominent Democratic organizations like House Majority PAC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is betting that these constituents are disillusioned with Trump, apprehensive about the future of democracy, and concerned about access to abortion services. They are hoping Shah, a former Arizona House member and physician, can attract them by positioning himself as a moderate, emphasizing his support in the state Legislature for bolstering border security, and promising a measured approach to a contentious political environment.
Shah’s strategies reflect those of Harris, who is relying on voter anger over abortion limits and discontent with Trump to gain a competitive edge, particularly in traditionally conservative regions. Meanwhile, Schweikert is countering by keeping the conversation on one of Republicans’ strongest platforms — the economy — while minimizing discussions around issues such as abortion. Currently, Trump has a slim lead of approximately 4 percentage points over Harris in Arizona, as reported by a survey released by The New York Times and Siena College on Sunday.
“People in Arizona value bipartisanship,” Shah stated in an interview, promoting the bipartisan measures he has supported in the state Legislature. “In certain instances, I’ve collaborated on practical solutions, even assigning bills under Republican sponsorship to ensure they pass.”
Schweikert enjoys the backing of significant Republican organizations like the Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee, which argue that Shah lacks strength on border security and crime, attempting to associate him with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., due to Shah’s previous endorsement of his single-payer healthcare initiative.
Nonetheless, Schweikert seems to be in a critical battle for his political future. In 2020, he won his district by roughly 18,000 votes. However, following redistricting that introduced more Democratic-leaning areas of Phoenix, Schweikert narrowly retained his seat in 2022 by just over 3,000 votes in the newly drawn district. Biden had secured the voters in his updated district by 1.5 percentage points four years prior.
This year’s race has seen limited polling, with a neutral analyst designating it as a “tossup.” Since the July 30 primary, Democrats have outspent Republicans on TV ads in the district, $15.1 million to $9 million, particularly in the campaign’s closing weeks, as per the tracking firm AdImpact.
The seasoned congressman has his own perspective on holding his district’s support. On a recent visit to his local Costco — a grocery excursion that also allowed for voter interaction — Schweikert remained composed.
“I feel very secure in my ticket-splitting,” Schweikert expressed, referring to the anticipation that some voters for Harris may also support him. As he wheeled his 2-year-old son around the store in a cart filled with fresh produce, shoppers recognizing him approached to shake his hand; he graciously provided them his personal cellphone number.
Schweikert is a fiscal conservative focused on managing the growing national debt and reducing the deficit. Throughout an hour-long interview, he shifted between various subjects, sharing data and expressing enthusiasm for cost savings projected from advancements in technology related to everything from weight-loss treatments to artificial intelligence.
His argument is that his unwavering emphasis on the economy resonates more profoundly with older, affluent voters than issues like immigration or abortion, and that they will distinguish him from their negative feelings towards Trump.
Democrats contend that Schweikert is an extremist lawmaker who has maintained a low profile, accomplishing little during his tenure in Washington. He departed the far-right Freedom Caucus last year, a move Democrats assert is an attempt to appear moderate. Schweikert, however, stated that the reason was that other caucus members had “big hearts, but were too immersed in populism and not grounded enough in the Constitution and mathematics.”
Shah’s advocates targeted Schweikert on the abortion issue, revealing past statements he made opposing the procedure and highlighting his sponsorship of a congressional bill that would have resulted in a federal ban.
Schweikert dismissed these attacks. He proposed that the upcoming abortion access measure on Arizona’s ballot might actually benefit him, as voters who wished to demonstrate their support for abortion while also re-electing him could do so. The ballot proposal would secure abortion access until fetal viability — around 24 weeks — in Arizona’s Constitution, a significant shift from the state’s current 15-week ban.
“I’m no longer a proxy for your feelings on that matter,” he remarked.
