By Shane Goldmacher
This fall, the balance of power in the Senate seems poised to shift from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, with one of the most vulnerable Democrats, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, trailing his GOP opponent in his reelection quest, as indicated by a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.
Tester, who initially secured his Senate seat in 2006, is appealing to moderate and independent voters, significantly outpacing the Democrat running at the head of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris. However, this support seems insufficient for survival in Montana, a Republican-leaning state where former President Donald Trump leads by 17 percentage points and Senate control is at stake.
According to the poll, Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican entrepreneur and former Navy SEAL who has no previous experience in public office, is ahead of Tester 52% to 44%. This represents a 7-point margin unrounded.
The Democratic Party currently holds a 51-seat majority in the Senate. Nevertheless, with Republicans already prepared to gain a seat following the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., who aligns with Democrats, the party cannot afford additional losses.
Indeed, the party’s only realistic chance is to achieve a 50-50 tie and hope for Harris to win the presidency, enabling her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, to cast the vital tiebreaking vote as vice president.
At least seven other Senate seats currently held by Democrats are also highly competitive this fall, particularly in key states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. In late September, a series of Times/Siena polls conducted in four of those races, along with Ohio, showed Democrats ahead, albeit narrowly in some instances.
The issue is that the Democratic Party has limited chances to flip any Republican-held seats in 2024 to counterbalance potential losses, such as in Montana.
According to new Times/Siena polling, the best shot might be in Texas, a long-desired target for Democrats that has eluded them in recent years. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican seeking a third term, is leading his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, 48% to 44%, as per a Times/Siena poll in Texas.
In Florida, a Times/Siena poll revealed that Sen. Rick Scott, the Republican incumbent, is significantly ahead of his Democratic opponent, Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, with a score of 49% to 40%.
Both Cruz and Scott maintain smaller leads in their states compared to Trump’s advantage over Harris.
In recent weeks, a third potentially competitive Republican-held seat has come to light, although the reelection campaign of Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., was not represented in the polls. Fischer is facing off against an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, and Republicans have recently provided support to her campaign through advertising.
Montana has seen an influx of funds over the past months, with AdImpact reporting that the state, which has a population of about 1.1 million, is expected to experience more than $265 million in television advertisements linked to the Senate race.
Republicans have identified Tester’s race as a high priority for 2024, mainly because the state has solidified its Republican stance in national elections. Trump secured 57% of the vote there in 2020 — the same percentage he holds in current polls.
With his distinctive flattop haircut and seven fingers—having lost three digits in a childhood accident—Tester has successfully constructed a unique image that has historically enabled him to transcend party lines, winning reelection in both 2012 and 2018.
This year, Republicans aim to turn the Senate race in Montana into a national partisan test. In the poll, 55% of likely voters expressed a preference for Republican control of the Senate, compared to merely 37% preferring Democratic control.
The poll indicates that Tester currently has the backing of only 6% of Republicans. Even though Tester is favored over Sheehy by independent voters and holds a more positive perception among them, he still trails his opponent.
In Montana, Harris has an unfavorable rating of 60% among likely voters, who trust Trump more than her on every issue surveyed, including the economy, immigration, abortion, democracy, and supporting the working class.
Reflecting the state’s partisan leaning and the challenges faced by Tester, even independent voters in Montana indicated that they preferred Republican control of the Senate in 2025.
In the governor’s race in Montana, Trump’s lead over Harris (57% to 40%) mirrored Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte’s advantage over his Democratic opponent, Ryan Busse (57% to 35%).
For Tester, a relentless stream of negative advertisements appears to have impacted perceptions, with 47% viewing him positively and 50% negatively.
All three new Times/Siena polls—covering Montana, Texas, and Florida—have revealed further evidence of a prevailing trend this year: Republican Senate contenders are lagging behind Trump.
In all three states, the gender divide has played in favor of the GOP, with men supporting Republicans at higher rates than women back Democratic candidates.
Notably, immigration has emerged as a top concern for voters in Montana, tied with the economy, whereas in Texas and Florida, the economy has overshadowed immigration as the primary issue, even though Montana shares a border with Canada.
