By Paul Krugman
On Tuesday, I participated in a City University of New York discussion regarding economic perceptions, which was temporarily interrupted by a protester shouting that President Joe Biden is neglecting some regions impacted by Hurricane Helene. The individual’s political stance was ambiguous — he was also shouting something about Israel — but it signified that Donald Trump’s recent falsehood has gained traction.
For those who haven’t seen it, Trump has been attempting to leverage the natural disaster for political advantage, asserting he has heard that the federal government — Biden — and North Carolina’s Democratic governor are “intentionally not assisting people in Republican regions.” This assertion is unfounded: Significant rescue and recovery initiatives are ongoing, and governors from the impacted states — including Republicans — have commended federal efforts. Trump claimed that Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, was “struggling to reach the president.” Conversely, Kemp stated that Biden had told him “if there’s anything else we need, just to call him directly — which I appreciate.”
However, at this juncture, Trump’s campaign is largely founded on fabricated narratives. He evidently feels the necessity for new material, as the previous narratives appear to be diminishing in their impact.
Before diving into the disaster relief matter, let me point out that Trump has truly pioneered political deception. Many politicians misrepresent their backgrounds or the details of their policy plans — Trump does this as well. Yet, he has fabricated an entire dystopian nightmare, attempting to convince voters that the United States is a nation with a crumbling economy swarmed by violent immigrants.
In truth, America faces low inflation and low unemployment, with the average worker’s purchasing power exceeding what it was five years ago. Admittedly, some Americans are facing challenges, but this reality existed during Trump’s presidency just as it does now.
Simultaneously, violent crime, particularly homicides, which escalated significantly during Trump’s final year in office, has decreased and appears to be on a downward trend.
What’s novel is that Trump’s portrayal of America as a hellscape seems to be losing its political effectiveness. For instance, a recent Cook Political Report survey of battleground states, while still showing Trump with some edge on the economy, indicated that Kamala Harris is tied on the issue of who can best handle inflation and cost of living, and is almost neck-and-neck on addressing crime and violence.
Thus, it must be the right moment to fabricate a new source of fear and indignation.
Where does the insinuation that Biden is withholding aid to politically uncooperative disaster zones originate? In part, it’s projection: Trump was found to have engaged in something similar during his presidency. It also involves criticizing Biden and Harris for not visiting the affected regions immediately.
However, Biden and Harris were acting judiciously. In the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster, a high-profile political figure accompanied by a large security entourage is the last thing you desire — politicians aren’t particularly effective at rescuing stranded individuals and repairing roads, and accommodating their visit would divert resources away from the urgent tasks of saving lives and restoring critical services. Former FEMA officials expressed doubts regarding Trump’s visit to Valdosta, Georgia, shortly after the storm, not only because he politicized a tragedy but because such a visit “does consume resources on the ground.”
Nonetheless, the allure for Trump to imply that Biden was politicizing his hurricane response must have been overwhelming, as it aligns so closely with many of his other assertions.
The crux of Trump’s fabrications is to inform his supporters that dreadful occurrences are taking place somewhere out there, even if those occurrences do not affect them directly or where they can witness them. He and JD Vance continue to propagate claims that Haitians are consuming pets in Springfield, Ohio; not many individuals have gone there themselves to ascertain the truth of this matter.
He also claims that immigrant “thugs” have overtaken Aurora, Colorado, and have seized control of numerous towns and cities across America, “Including the big ones,” he asserts. “Look at New York.” Well, I look at New York — where immigrants make up approximately 36% of the population — regularly, and what I observe aligns with official crime statistics: It’s one of America’s safest major cities, a place where people, including myself, traverse the streets and take the subway daily. However, many Americans do not experience everyday life in New York and are inclined to believe that it’s a crime-infested dystopia — part of a pattern in which people acknowledge crime as a serious national concern, just not within their own neighborhoods.
Perspectives on the economy reflect the same trend. This year, a Wall Street Journal poll indicated that residents of seven battleground states believed the national economy was faring poorly — yet their own states’ economies were usually perceived as doing well.
Until recently, Trump’s disparagement of America seemed to resonate politically. As I mentioned, however, it appears that his fearmongering regarding crime and the economy is starting to lose its grip. Consequently, he now asserts that he’s hearing reports that the feds have forsaken hurricane victims, which may sway voters who cannot witness the immense efforts being undertaken, under challenging circumstances, to deliver critical supplies and restore communications.
Will this strategy succeed? I have no certainty. What I do understand is that this is merely more of the same. Trump is pledging to save us from dire threats that exist solely in his imagination.
