By Reid J. Epstein, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker
New polls from The New York Times and Siena College indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a remarkably close contest in the crucial states of Michigan and Wisconsin compared to just seven weeks ago.
Harris’ lead from early August has been slightly diminished by Trump’s persistent appeal on economic matters, which poses a potentially concerning issue for the vice president as the economy remains a top priority for voters.
With fewer than 40 days remaining until Election Day, the race is virtually neck-and-neck in Michigan, where Harris secures 48% of likely voters’ support and Trump claims 47% — both figures fall within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, a state known for sometimes inflating Democratic support, Harris leads with 49% to Trump’s 47%.
The polls also revealed that Harris enjoys a 9-point advantage over Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which could be pivotal in the Electoral College. If Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania while Trump claims the Sun Belt states where he leads according to Times/Siena polls, this district could be crucial for her to reach the essential 270 electoral votes for victory.
Additionally, Times and Siena College examined the presidential race in Ohio, deemed not a battleground for the White House but featuring one of the most competitive Senate contests. In Ohio, Trump is ahead by 6 points, while Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is leading his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, by 4 points.
Wisconsin, which has seemed like a promising state for Democrats on the presidential map, has seen less than a one-point margin in four of the last six elections, including the 2020 contest. Biden won Michigan by a 3-point margin that same year after Trump had a narrow victory by 0.3 points in 2016.
Despite Trump being widely unpopular, interviews with surveyed individuals show that Harris is facing obstacles in winning over those voters who are reluctant to support the former president.
“I’m not pleased at all,” remarked Matt Henderson, 65, a maintenance worker for a local electric company in Westland, Michigan. He indicated that he would likely vote for Harris, not out of political alignment, but to stop Trump from regaining power.
“January 6, 2021, showed he is a traitor,” Henderson stated. “His focus is solely on himself. He attempted to overturn an election.”
The polling indicated that 80% of Black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio plan to back Harris, while 13% support Trump. Another 7% of Black voters expressed uncertainty about their voting intentions. While Harris holds a significant advantage among Black voters, the 80% figure is less than Biden’s national support four years prior.
Antonio Dawkins, 40, a regional sales manager from Waukesha, Wisconsin, remarked that although he intends to vote, he would leave the presidential choice blank. Despite his discontent with Trump, he also harbors dissatisfaction with Harris.
“She seems to be adopting a car salesman approach, insisting that she’s not Trump, which isn’t sufficient,” noted Dawkins, who is Black. “She makes many appealing statements but lacks substance. I suppose they’d say — there’s no meat and potatoes.”
The polling outcomes reflect a consistent sentiment among voters in battleground states: Many believe Trump’s administration benefited individuals like themselves, and they fear Harris’ policies may be detrimental.
In both Michigan and Wisconsin, voters are nearly evenly split on whether they think Harris’ policies would be beneficial or harmful: 41% versus 40%. However, 46% of voters in the two states believe Trump’s policies would help them.
When posed a direct question about which candidate they trust more to “assist people like you,” Harris had a slight advantage, suggesting that voters perceive a nuanced distinction between the candidates and their platforms.
The voters also showed equal trust in each candidate’s ability to support the working class.
After the economy, the issue of abortion emerged as the second-most pressing concern for voters in Michigan and Wisconsin, with 18% indicating its importance to their voting decisions. This marks an uptick from May when only 13% regarded abortion as their main issue.
On the topic of abortion, voters in Michigan preferred Harris over Trump by a margin of 20 points, and in Wisconsin by 13 points. However, in Wisconsin, this represents a decrease from a 22-point lead in August. Harris’ numbers regarding abortion in Michigan remain relatively steady.
Trump’s major weaknesses are linked to his behavior. In Wisconsin, 55% of undecided and swayable voters cited concerns over his demeanor, honesty, and presidential capabilities. This figure was slightly lower in Michigan at 47%.
“He’s divisive, violent, and despicable,” stated Lesley McKenzie, 64, an executive assistant from Southfield, Michigan. “It’s downright absurd to even consider him around the White House. He operates like he’s rolling in a pigsty, coming up with outrageous comments daily. I don’t think he’s mentally sound. And if he is, good grief.”
The pivotal demographic of voters who may determine the election — undecided and persuadable Americans — has decreased slightly since August as they begin to firm up their choices.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, these voters slightly favored Harris, though they hold reservations about both contestants. Approximately one-third expressed that their main issue with Trump relates to his character, while 12% were concerned with his competence and 8% were apprehensive about his honesty.
Fewer undecided and persuadable voters expressed concerns regarding Harris’ character and temperament. Only 10% in Michigan and Wisconsin highlighted her personality or judgment as their primary worry, while 19% expressed concerns over her honesty.
Nathan Booth, 27, a surgical resident from the Detroit suburbs, described Trump’s recent debate performance as “embarrassing.” Booth voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020 due to the Republican president’s behavior.
Nevertheless, Booth mentioned he is inclined to vote for Trump again this year due to dissatisfaction with Biden’s management of the economy.
“Over the last three years, my purchasing power has diminished,” he remarked. “I have less money now than I used to, and I suspect most Americans earning under $100,000 feel the same.”
