By Ross Douthat
In the period leading up to Donald Trump’s rise, political analysis increasingly aimed for a somewhat scientific approach, with data journalism in various forms replacing the traditional focus on instincts, stories, and feelings.
However, during the Trump era, the mythical has sought retribution against the merely measurable. Although data remains beneficial in its context, even pollsters now discuss their “art,” and like intriguing creatures in the Roman Forum, the most improbable outcomes have returned to roost. The significance of charisma and “fortuna” has been reaffirmed; figures like Thomas Carlyle, Shakespeare, and the Coen brothers have proved to be more reliable guides than any scientific analysis; and fundamental forces, ranging from pandemics to warfare to presidential decline, have played pivotal roles.
As we approach what could be a Trump restoration, any predictions about the forthcoming four years must align with this mythic landscape and be dramatically suitable for the destinies they foresee for both the president and the United States.
The difficulty for those trying to foresee the future is that Trump’s initial term already presented a seemingly complete narrative circle. A presidency long characterized by dark humor descended into tragedy when Trump eventually confronted an challenge he could not overcome: a lethal pandemic stemming from the Communist nation he had promised to confront and contain, which led him to hospitalization and the defeat of his reelection bid. Subsequently, in response to his political downfall, he fell into a world of conspiracies with Sidney Powell and Mike Lindell, giving the tale a fitting resolution: hubris, nemesis, madness, the end.
Yet he has made a comeback, politically resurrected by the very prosecutorial methods that aimed to obliterate him, bolstered by what seems like a miraculous escape from an assassination attempt, triumphant against all foes and raised to greater levels of power and influence than before. What could a mythically inclined commentary propose will happen next?
One possibility is that, having already witnessed Trump at his lowest ebb, for a second term to be truly striking, extraordinary, and aesthetically appropriate, it should bring him to resounding success. And not just a period of low unemployment and stability in the Middle East, but a genuine realization of his initial promise from the 2016 campaign: the restoration of American greatness, on a scale that astounds both detractors and supporters alike.
Imagine Elon Musk dispatching starships to Mars. Picture fleets of airships journeying to an American-controlled Greenland, the American West flourishing and verdant, regime transformations in Iran and China, and autonomous vehicles speeding down highways and backroads. During his first term, Trump was deeply flawed and rightfully defeated, but now, having triumphed over crisis and loss, the narrative calls for his total redemption.
This is the future I am hopeful for. However, the counterargument is that history often treats even the most extraordinary political figures harshly, more prone to abrupt cessation or tragic fall than to conclude with glorification.
Thus, Trump’s rise from the depths does not assure a joyous conclusion; just ask Napoleon after his victorious return from Elba. Certainly, the 45th and soon-to-be 47th president has endured, achieved, and reached a pinnacle of influence, yet he remains an old man burdened by the same traits that previously led to his downfall, facing a world disrupted by the very tectonic forces that ushered him into and out of power and back again. He has seen vindication in his aspirations but lacks a transformation towards humility. He continues to embody the quintessential American hubris.
Given this interpretation, if fate proves its ability to weave and cut effectively, the Trump saga can only conclude in significant diminishment, another defeat far more comprehensive than the last. This is a disconcerting possibility, considering that Trump’s latest loss involved a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic and turmoil at the Capitol on January 6.
How might history escalate these stakes? With the constitutional crisis that so many of his opponents foresee? With real global conflict? The threat of artificial intelligence or another catastrophe? Or perhaps a shocking betrayal? (Et tu, Elon?)
“High variance” is the term I keep using for the Trump restoration. The range of possible outcomes is greater this time; the world and historical context are more fluid, potential victories are more apparent, and the stakes of failure are sharper. After everything we’ve observed thus far, the only radically surprising scenario for the next four years would be a return to a state of comfortable stagnation.
For all other outcomes, for every other conclusion to the Trump narrative, the signs are present, and we cannot claim unpreparedness.
