By Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman, Isabel Kershner, and Ismaeel Naar
According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Israel and Hamas are “on the verge” of reaching an agreement to announce a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and liberate hostages taken there, raising hopes for a break in the violence after more than 15 months of conflict.
“It’s very close, closer than it has ever been,” Blinken stated at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. “But for now, we are waiting for a final response from Hamas regarding their acceptance. Until we receive that response, we will remain on the edge.”
Neither the Israeli government nor Hamas officials have publicly confirmed their stance on the ceasefire proposal, although Blinken implied that Israel supports the agreement, thereby placing its outcome in Hamas’s hands.
U.S. officials have previously made optimistic statements concerning ceasefire discussions, only for negotiations to frequently devolve into mutual blame.
However, in recent weeks, sources familiar with the negotiations have expressed growing optimism regarding a potential deal.
Officials within both the Israeli administration and Hamas have indicated their readiness to progress if the other side approves. On Monday, a Hamas spokesperson mentioned that an agreement might be within reach in the upcoming days provided Israel did not change its positions suddenly. On Tuesday, an Israeli official remarked that Israel is prepared to finalize the agreement and is awaiting Hamas’s decision.
Some officials have hinted that a looming deadline could be helping bridge gaps: the conclusion of President Joe Biden’s term and the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on Jan. 20.
Mediators “have succeeded in alleviating many disputes between both sides,” Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, told reporters on Tuesday. The discussions are currently focused on “the final elements required to reach an agreement,” he explained.
Nevertheless, mediators, including Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, along with other officials, have cautioned that even significant advancements could be reversed at the last moment.
“We believe we are nearing the concluding phases, but until we have a formal announcement — there will be none,” al-Ansari noted, adding that there is no definite timeline for a deal signing.
Trump has cautioned that there will be “severe consequences” unless the hostages are released before he assumes the presidency. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s choice for Middle East envoy, has also made visits to Qatar and Israel, meeting with prominent officials, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday. (Witkoff is also the co-chair of Trump’s inaugural committee overseeing next week’s ceremony.)
If an agreement between Hamas and Israel is achieved, it would provide some relief to Palestinians in Gaza, who have endured harsh living conditions in displacement camps and constant attacks from Israel, as well as to families of hostages taken from Israel who have been anxiously awaiting news of their loved ones for over a year.
“I hope this time the return is genuine,” Manar Silmi, a 34-year-old psychologist working with an international aid organization, expressed her wish to return to her home in Gaza City, which she left early in the conflict. “We’ve endured more than enough.”
Al-Ansari stated that a framework agreement has been presented to both parties, adding that discussions are currently centered around “remaining details” concerning the implementation of the deal.
Hamas also announced that the negotiations “have reached their final phases.” The leadership of the Palestinian armed group “is hopeful that this round of discussions will conclude with a comprehensive and clear agreement,” Hamas stated.
Hamas officials negotiating in Doha, Qatar, need to secure approval from the group’s remaining military leaders in Gaza for the proposed deal. Key among these leaders is Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother Yahya previously led the group until he was killed by Israel in September. Coordinating with them can be challenging, which can lead to delays.
It remains uncertain whether Sinwar has communicated his views on the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Doha.
The framework for the deal draws heavily from previous proposals discussed in May and July, as noted by a diplomat familiar with the negotiations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. Those earlier proposals outlined a three-phase ceasefire plan whereby Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from Gaza in exchange for hostages released by Hamas in return for Palestinians incarcerated by Israel.
In the initial phase of the proposed ceasefire — which would span approximately six weeks — Hamas would release 33 designated hostages, the majority of whom Israel believes are still alive, according to an Israeli official who requested anonymity due to the delicate nature of the talks. Israel is prepared to release hundreds of Palestinian detainees in reciprocal action, the official stated, although the quantity would be contingent on how many hostages are confirmed to be alive.
Eli Albag, whose daughter Liri, 19, was taken from the military base where she was stationed during the Hamas-led assault, met with Netanyahu on Tuesday evening along with other relatives of hostages.
Netanyahu expressed optimism, according to Albag. However, he mentioned that it remains difficult for him to envision what it would be like to welcome his daughter back home.
“We want to see the agreement finalized first,” he stated. “After that, we can entertain other thoughts.”
While there is considerable public pressure in Israel to finalize a deal for the release of hostages, many Israelis also harbor concerns that a ceasefire could allow Hamas to maintain control in Gaza, enabling its fighters to reorganize and strategize for future assaults.
Two of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners — Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — have already condemned the proposed deal as effectively conceding to Hamas. These two parties could jeopardize Netanyahu’s administration if they were to exit his ruling coalition in protest.
The agreement is likely to still proceed, as the opposition in Israel’s parliament has largely committed to providing Netanyahu with a safety margin to secure a ceasefire and hostage agreement. However, it is uncertain how long this support would last, as it would leave Netanyahu’s political future reliant on adversaries who have pledged to remove him from office.
In Gaza, Montaser Bahja, a displaced English teacher taking refuge in Gaza City, noted that Palestinians are beginning to feel a sense of hope regarding a deal after enduring over a year of hunger and hardship.
However, even if both parties declare a ceasefire, many Palestinians in Gaza are apprehensive about their uncertain future in the aftermath of the conflict, Bahja remarked. Additionally, even if Hamas’s agreement leads to the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, he suggested that few would view that as a success given the extent of death and devastation in Gaza.
“Everything is uncertain,” he stated. “At this point, people simply want an end to it all.”
