By Christopher Flavelle and Mira Rojanasakul
This month, Richard D. Zimmel faced the looming insurance crisis affecting the United States upon receiving a letter.
Residing in the increasingly fire-sensitive hills surrounding Silver City, New Mexico, Zimmel had taken all the necessary precautions. He cleared trees from around his home and laid down gravel in his yard to prevent flames from encroaching from the nearby forest. Additionally, he shielded his house with fire-resistant stucco and installed a noncombustible steel roof for additional safety.
Ultimately, it was all in vain. His insurer, Homesite Insurance, cut ties with him. “The property is situated in a brushfire or wildfire area that no longer complies with Homesite’s minimum wildfire risk standards,” the letter stated. (Homesite did not reply to a request for feedback.)
Zimmel is not alone. Since 2018, upwards of 1.9 million home insurance policies across the country have been canceled — referred to as “nonrenewed” in industry terms. A congressional investigation unveiled that the nonrenewal rates have tripled or more in over 200 counties.
As climate change leads to increased wildfires, hurricanes, and other hazards, the once predictable home insurance market has turned into a battleground where climate crises intersect with daily life.
The implications could be significant. Without insurance, obtaining a mortgage is unattainable; without a mortgage, buying a home remains unrealistic for many Americans. Communities labeled as too risky to insure face decreasing property values, which in turn can lead to reduced tax income for schools, law enforcement, and other essential services. As insurers retract, they can destabilize the remaining communities, making their actions a forewarning of future disruptions.
For the first time, the extent of this retraction is starting to be revealed. Last fall, the Senate Budget Committee required the largest insurance providers in the nation to disclose the number of nonrenewals by county and year. The outcome is a mapping of the climate crisis from a fresh perspective.
The American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade organization, remarked that nonrenewal data was “inappropriate for presenting meaningful insights on climate change consequences,” as it doesn’t clarify the reasons behind individual insurers’ decisions. Furthermore, the group noted that efforts to compile data from insurers “could hinder fair competition in the market.”
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., who chairs the committee, asserted the newfound data’s importance. In an interview, he described it as a significant predictor of “the potential and timing of a major, systemic economic downturn,” as disturbances in the insurance sector impact property valuations.
The visualization of policy cancellations illustrates how the challenges in the U.S. home insurance sector extend beyond the well-known situations in Florida and California. The surge in nonrenewals now stretches along the Gulf Coast, impacting Alabama and Mississippi; up the Atlantic coast, through the Carolinas, Virginia, and into southern New England; reaching inland to portions of the plains and Intermountain West; and even stretching to Hawaii.
The situation in Silver City exemplifies how the insurance crisis stems from multiple factors over many years—and how difficult it is to address.
Established as a mining community in the 1870s, the town of 10,000 lies adjacent to the Gila National Forest, a sprawling 3.3 million acres of alligator juniper, ponderosa pine, and Gambel oak blanketing the gently sloping mountains.
Those woods, however, have turned into a fire hazard.
Since it was designated a national forest in 1924, federal efforts aimed to shield the land from wildfires. This approach overlooked that fires can clear undergrowth, according to Adam Mendonca, who serves as the U.S. Forest Service’s Washington deputy director of fire and aviation and resides in Silver City. Consequently, decades of accumulated trees and brush have intensified wildfires, which now tend to burn larger and hotter when they occur.
This threat has intensified due to climate change, resulting in elevated temperatures and arid conditions. Wildfires are increasingly likely to ignite at any time throughout the year.
Experts indicate that the risk to people is not solely determined by where homes are built, but also by their construction methods. In Grant County, outside city limits, there are no zoning laws or wildfire construction guidelines, and no inspection system to guarantee that newly constructed homes are constructed safely, according to Roger Groves, the fire chief of the county that includes Silver City.
Together, these issues have compelled insurers to withdraw, according to Susan Sumrall, an insurance representative in Silver City.
Following the receipt of his nonrenewal letter this month, Zimmel approached State Farm, which turned down his application for coverage. His insurance agent was unsuccessful with three additional companies, including Travelers. (State Farm and Travelers did not reply to inquiries for comments.) Eventually, a smaller firm agreed to insure his home, but his premiums shot up by one-third.
Zimmel’s primary concern is the potential impact of the insurance struggle on his home’s value, estimated by his real estate agent at around $725,000.
“I am uncertain about the future of the town if this trend continues,” expressed Zimmel’s agent, Shelley Scarborough.
Officials are actively working to mitigate wildfire risks. According to Groves, the county is exploring the establishment of building regulations aimed at minimizing fire hazards. State authorities are also contemplating initiatives to encourage homeowners to clear vegetation from their properties, possibly through a pilot program in nearby Lincoln County that would require these actions to qualify for the state’s high-risk insurance pool.
Moreover, the U.S. Forest Service is working to eliminate years of dense brush and excess vegetation—what industry experts term “treating” the forest. This process, however, is quite complicated.
In the forested sections closest to the city, crews have been removing smaller trees, low branches, and scrub oak, gathering them into piles to dry. After a year or so, these piles are ignited—preferably in the winter, to minimize the risk of spreading flames.
Following these actions, a prescribed burn can be executed whereby a section of the forest is intentionally set ablaze to further eradicate the vegetation. To maintain these efforts, this process typically needs to happen every five to ten years.
In coastal South Carolina, an area now experiencing some of the highest nonrenewal rates nationwide, insurers have been going out of business, minimizing their liabilities, or simply exiting the market, according to Jay Taylor, an insurance agent in Beaufort County, home to Hilton Head, a region especially vulnerable to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and other climate-induced risks.
While homeowners express frustrations regarding the challenges and expenses associated with securing insurance, the desire to reside by the ocean remains a compelling incentive.
“They might complain to us,” Taylor remarked. “Yet, they continue to build.”
