By Tim Britton and Will Sammon / The Athletic
In the spacious setting of the Hilton Anatole at MLB’s winter meetings, one scout summed it up perfectly: “Fifteen is a significant amount.”
Fifteen years is quite a stretch to forecast the performance of a major league athlete. Juan Soto’s $765 million agreement with the New York Mets, potentially totaling $805 million throughout the contract’s duration, signifies the longest contract ever in major league history. What insights can history provide about his aging trajectory over the next 15 years?
To explore this, we examined players whose early career performances closely matched Soto’s up to their age-25 seasons. How did those athletes fare over the subsequent five seasons (the timeframe in which Soto can opt-out of his contract) and over the next 15?
Since integration, Soto ranks 10th in wins above replacement through his age-25 season, based on Baseball Reference data. Therefore, our sample encompasses the nine players who ranked above him and the ten below.
In the five seasons following their age-25 years, those players collectively averaged 32 WAR — equating to over six wins above replacement annually. Willie Mays led this group, averaging just under nine WAR during those five years, while outfielder César Cedeño performed the least effectively, averaging three WAR from age 26 to 30 before essentially no longer being a valuable major leaguer.
Over the following 15 years, this group averaged 58 wins above replacement, or just under four per season. In relative terms, they contributed 171% more WAR from ages 26 to 40 than they accumulated through age 25. Thus, one might expect Soto, with his 36 wins above replacement, to accumulate approximately 62 WAR from now until the conclusion of his contract in 2039.
In that scenario, the Mets would be investing around $12.3 million per win above replacement — hardly considered excessive given the current market for free agents.
Mays again stood out as the most remarkable, being worth 378% more WAR following age 25 than before. Barry Bonds was close behind at 367% more, while Cedeño, Vada Pinson, and Andruw Jones saw the steepest declines. (Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Manny Machado remain active, so they are not included in the sample after age 30.)
Different players accumulate their value through various methods. Cedeño excelled as a speedy player capable of hitting 20 home runs and stealing 50 bases while playing outstanding defense in center field. Jones was a defender of exceptional talent at a key position in his era. Hank Aaron was a consistent corner outfielder who maintained a .300 batting average and belted 30-plus homers each year.
The player from the list who may resemble Soto the most is Frank Robinson. Robinson recorded 37.3 WAR through age 25 compared to Soto’s 36.4; his career on-base plus slugging percentage was .946 versus Soto’s .953. Soto’s OPS+, which adjusts a player’s on-base plus slugging for league and park factors, is slightly higher at 160 compared to Robinson’s 146, while Robinson’s outfield defense was superior; he received a Gold Glove award in 1958.
From age 26 to age 30, Robinson averaged nearly seven wins above replacement, and he surpassed five wins above replacement from ages 26 to 38. Altogether, he contributed 70 WAR after turning 25. The Mets would eagerly welcome that level of sustained output from Soto. (In the franchise’s history, only Tom Seaver has amassed more than 50 wins above replacement as a Met, finishing his career with 76 WAR for New York.)
Overall, scouts express optimism regarding Soto’s bat retaining its effectiveness over time.
“Offensively, the talent will always be present,” one scout noted. “Even if there’s a decline in power, akin to what Joey Votto experienced, his plate discipline should remain intact. His ability to hit will continue to exist.”
However, there’s less confidence regarding Soto’s defensive capabilities, highlighting that it’s a matter of when, not if, he will need to switch positions, raising questions about whether he can succeed outside of the designated hitter role.
“I consider him a poor defender,” a scout remarked. “And in right field, that can hinder you. Will he be able to transition to first base in the future?”
