While Puerto Rico lacks representation in the Electoral College and has no official role in presidential voting, a significant 75% of Puerto Ricans on the Island cast their votes for Vice President Kamala Harris in a symbolic gesture on Election Day.
Although some commentators might interpret this as an indication that Puerto Rico would lean Democratic if it were a state, all available evidence suggests that a more prudent, reflective consideration is warranted.
The Shift of the Puerto Rican Vote Towards the Right Stateside
The straw vote in Puerto Rico closely followed a jibe from a performer at a large Trump rally, who referred to Puerto Rico as “a floating island of garbage.” There is no doubt that this comment incited strong backlash from Puerto Ricans. Simultaneously, voters understood their ballots would not be tallied. Their votes may have been cast more to convey a message rather than to consider the election’s potential impact on their future wellbeing.
On the mainland, where their votes did hold weight, Puerto Ricans tell a contrasting story. In Osceola County, home to a large Puerto Rican population in Florida, the state with the most extensive Puerto Rican community, voters supported Trump. This trend was evident in numerous counties and states boasting substantial Puerto Rican populations.
Trump did not actively campaign in Puerto Rico. Aside from the initial jest and a brief mention, he and his campaign neglected to address Puerto Rico entirely. However, he did campaign in Berks County, Pennsylvania, which has a significant Puerto Rican demographic, securing 55.8% of the vote there. Similar results were witnessed in Hampden County, Massachusetts, Polk County, Florida, and Cumberland County, New Jersey, where President-Elect Trump garnered 54.6%, 59.7%, and 51.5% of the votes, respectively, based on CNN exit polls. Although these exit polls do not precisely identify the percentage of Puerto Rican voters in these regions, the noticeable shift towards the right among the mainland Puerto Rican community is significant.
Analysis: Puerto Ricans, Latinos Turned Towards Trump in 2024
Maintaining a Bipartisan Tradition in Puerto Rican Elections
Additionally, Puerto Rico elected a Republican governor and a resident commissioner who is expected to affiliate with the Democrats.
Governor-elect González Colón has held the position of resident commissioner since 2017, marking her third consecutive victory in island-wide elections. She has previously served as Minority Leader of the Puerto Rico House of Representatives (2013-2017) and Speaker of the House (2009-2013).
She follows the legacy of the Republican leader Luis Fortuño, who also held the roles of Resident Commissioner (2005-2009) and Governor (2009-2013).
Newly elected Resident Commissioner Pablo José Hernández Rivera enters the political landscape at just 33, lacking previous island-wide victories but with promising prospects ahead.
In summary, based on the two significant island-wide elections of 2024 with tangible ramifications, Puerto Rico functioned like a swing state rather than a blue state. True to its historical context, Puerto Rico was clearly purple, not blue.
Can Future Votes be Anticipated?
When Hawaii and Alaska achieved statehood, it was anticipated that Alaska would align with the Democrats while Hawaii would favor Republicans. The outcomes have proven to be the reverse. Many states were admitted during the 1800s to add Republican votes for presidential elections, yet not all have steadily remained red.
History indicates that forecasts of political inclinations are often unreliable. Puerto Rico, in particular, has not historically concentrated on the Republican/Democratic divide. Either party could win the allegiance of the prospective state of Puerto Rico. It may simply be awarded to the party that makes the greatest effort to win them over.
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