By Andrew Higgins
Moldova’s pro-Western leader, Maia Sandu, secured reelection on Sunday during a critical runoff election against an opponent she referred to as “the candidate of Moscow.”
The election, which took place a week after a disputed vote in Georgia — another former Soviet state — saw the pro-Moscow party emerge victorious, has drawn significant attention from the United States, the European Union, and Russia, who view it as a vital assessment of Moldova’s political trajectory.
With over 98% of votes tallied, Sandu received 54.9%, establishing an unassailable margin over her Moscow-aligned competitor, who garnered 45.3%.
In a broadcast speech on Monday, she expressed gratitude to Moldovans abroad, whose ballots were pivotal in swinging the election in her favor, and added that this outcome represented a triumph for the nation as a whole. “You saved Moldova today,” she remarked. “In our choice for a respected future, everyone emerged victorious.”
In what appeared to be a criticism of Russia, Sandu condemned “hostile external forces and organized crime” for trying to influence the election outcome, alleging that it constituted an “unprecedented assault in all of European history,” characterized by “dirty money and illicit vote buying.”
European leaders praised the results as a win against what Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk termed as “Russia’s extensive and aggressive meddling.” He expressed hope that “this positive momentum will be sustained in the coming days and months in other nations as well.”
Nestled between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova has both Romanian and Russian as its primary languages and has fluctuated between Western and Eastern allegiances since gaining independence in 1991 amid persistent corruption struggles.
The nation’s population has decreased over the years due to continuous emigration, particularly of its youth searching for jobs abroad, dropping by more than 35% to under 3 million. Nonetheless, despite its small size, Moldova has become a focal point for rivalry among major powers.
Alexandr Stoianoglo, a past prosecutor general facing a criminal investigation for corruption, was the runner-up according to near-final results.
Stoianoglo’s candidacy was backed by Moldova’s socialist party, historically aligned with Russia, and reportedly supported by a vote-buying scheme orchestrated from Moscow by a Moldovan fugitive businessman with a criminal past.
The runoff followed an initial election round two weeks prior, where Sandu significantly outperformed Stoianoglo, who secured second place among numerous competitors, many of whom aimed to halt Moldova’s EU accession efforts in favor of a shift towards Russia. Most initial round candidates endorsed Stoianoglo for the runoff, which saw a turnout exceeding 54%.
Sandu’s victory bolstered the West’s aspirations to diminish Russia’s influence over former Soviet states, which, with the exception of Ukraine and the three Baltic States, have largely remained within Russian sway due to military, economic, and cultural pressures.
A small area of Moldovan land along the Dniester River, to the east of the capital Chisinau, declared itself a sovereign, Russian-speaking state following the Soviet Union’s disintegration, while Romanian speakers retained control of Moldova. This area has been under Russian military occupation since 1992.
Aiming to guide Moldova clearly towards the West, Sandu proposed a referendum on October 20 to enshrine the “irreversibility” of Moldova’s “European course” within the constitution. This referendum passed by a very slim margin — less than 1% — slightly overshadowing Sandu’s triumph on the same day as the initial presidential election round.
This also disrupted the European Union’s expectations that a strong majority of Moldovans would endorse solidifying their nation’s alignment with the West. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, still claimed that the narrow majority reflected Moldova’s desire for a “European future,” notwithstanding “Russia’s hybrid tactics.”
Having formerly held a position at the World Bank, Sandu ascended to power four years ago on a promise to eradicate corruption and Russian dominance, earning substantial backing from both the United States and the European Union, which have extended millions in economic aid to Moldova.
Western support intensified in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which, like Moldova, is fragmented by ethnic, socio-economic, and linguistic divides, and has faced ongoing pressure from Russia to refrain from aligning with the West by pursuing NATO or EU membership.
Stoianoglo rebuffed claims of pro-Russia sentiment, asserting his support for Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia while aiming to ensure that Moldova, which is constitutionally neutral, remains uninvolved directly in the war.
During a pre-election debate the previous week, Sandu confronted Stoianoglo regarding his assertions of supporting Ukraine. “Do you truly believe what you are saying?” she probed. “In Kyiv, they know you represent Moscow.”
Similarly, the ruling party in Georgia, Georgian Dream, denied any pro-Russian leanings ahead of a crucial parliamentary election on October 26, despite opposition parties alleging electoral fraud. International election observers noted instances of vote-buying and other irregularities but did not directly question the election outcome.
In reaction to Russia’s expansive invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission in June 2022 recommended granting “candidate status” to both Moldova and Ukraine within the European Union, the initial formal step of a process typically taking over a decade. Georgia received the same status the preceding year, but now, alarmed by the contentious October 26 election and recent implementation of a “foreign agent” law and anti-LGBTQ+ statutes, the commission indicated last week that the membership process had been “de facto halted.”
In Sunday interviews, voters in Moldova who supported Sandu in Chisinau primarily expressed backing for her initiatives aimed at securing Moldova’s entry into the European Union. Meanwhile, her challengers emphasized more immediate economic concerns.
Dumitru Stantier, 89, whose daughter and granddaughter have relocated to Germany, stated he voted for Stoianoglo as he felt that Sandu and her ruling party, in charge of governmental functions, excessively focused on Europe without taking meaningful measures to increase his pension of about $218 monthly.
“Can I sustain myself on this with today’s prices? Do they even consider it? Do they offer any assistance?” he exclaimed. “Thieves!”
For years, Russia has vilified Sandu as a Western puppet committed to relinquishing Moldova’s sovereignty and cultural values, asserting that her endeavors to join the European Union would result in children being indoctrinated into LGBTQ+ identities.
These very cultural topics, amplified by Russian media and the Orthodox Church, also influenced Georgia’s election, which the country’s pro-Western president, Salome Zourabichvili — elected independently from and in conflict with the government — condemned as a “Russian operation.”
In Moldova, Sandu and her backers accused Russia of orchestrating an extensive disinformation and vote-buying campaign aimed at influencing the outcome of Sunday’s election.
Journalists from Ziarul de Garda, an investigative publication in Chisinau, penetrated a political network in Moldova financed and led by Ilan Shor, the fugitive entrepreneur, and reported that it compensated voters to mark their ballots against Sandu.
Shor has alleged that he has behaved lawfully, portraying himself as a victim as he could face prison time if he returns to Moldova due to his involvement in looting the nation’s banking sector. Several political parties in Moldova that he supported have been banned for breaches related to financing regulations and various legal infractions.
Like the impending October 26 election in Georgia, the vote in Moldova signifies a crucial point in the longstanding contest between Russia and the West over the geopolitical orientation of former Soviet nations.
This contest escalated sharply following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, instigating concerns in Moldova and Georgia that they could be next in line.
Sandu’s adversaries leveraged these anxieties throughout the campaign, cautioning that her alignment with the West could provoke retaliation from Russia. Moldova has refrained from supplying arms to Ukraine, yet it has participated in Western sanctions against Russia.
