By Nick Corasaniti
With just two weeks remaining until Election Day, over 15 million individuals have already made their votes known, signaling a definitive shift in voting patterns influenced by the coronavirus pandemic, establishing early voting as an essential aspect of the American electoral landscape.
While many voters opted for mail-in ballots or participated in early voting during the 2020 election due to the urgency of the pandemic, a significant number are also choosing to vote early in this election cycle. Some are benefiting from recent legislation that broadened early voting opportunities; others are simply inclined towards the method that surged in popularity four years prior.
Numerous states have recorded unprecedented figures for the initial day of early voting. On Thursday, over 353,000 ballots were cast in North Carolina, setting a record for the crucial state still recovering from Hurricane Helene. On Friday, close to 177,000 citizens voted in Louisiana, marking a high for the staunchly conservative state.
The most significant change has occurred in Georgia, where voters have consistently broken daily records for in-person early voting nearly every day since polls opened last Tuesday. More than 1.5 million voters have already submitted an early ballot in this pivotal swing state.
The ongoing preference for early voting — both via mail and in-person — reflects a transformation in voting habits that emerged following the 2020 election. As many were apprehensive about casting ballots in person during the pandemic, 65.6 million opted for mail-in voting that year, and an additional 35.8 million chose early in-person voting to steer clear of large gatherings.
However, with the surge in early voting, it becomes challenging to ascertain whether this represents a partisan advantage or what the implications of early turnout might suggest for overall participation.
Here are some insights from the current phase of the early voting process:
The year 2020 revolutionized everything.
Understanding early voting trends hinges upon comparing present turnout with historical data to discern enthusiasm or potential benefits for either Democrats or Republicans.
In the current context, this task is considerably more complex.
The previous election in 2020 was a unique situation. It unfolded during a perilous pandemic, inciting widespread anxiety regarding the postal service’s capacity to manage the dramatic increase in mail voting. As a result, millions more voters opted for mail-in ballots sooner than ever before.
The upcoming 2024 election lacks these complications. Consequently, the fact that 30 million individuals had voted by this time in 2020 compared to 15 million this year does not imply that total voter turnout will be halves of 2020 levels.
Simultaneously, the 2020 election ushered in a comprehensive shift in voting behaviors. The elections in 2016 and 2012 did not witness the same volume of early voting, making it precarious to draw conclusions from current early voting figures relative to those cycles.
Certain states modified their voting regulations following the 2020 election, a transition that could also be influencing voting behavior. In Georgia, a law enacted in 2021 has imposed more restrictions on mail voting. Meanwhile, Michigan implemented legislation in 2022 establishing nine days of early voting as well as a “permanent absentee list,” permitting voters to receive a mail ballot for every election automatically.
While the 2022 midterms could offer a clearer understanding of the post-2020 voting environment, these elections typically attract a different electorate than presidential elections.
Democrats still command mailing voting, yet Republicans are making strides.
In the limited number of states that monitor mail-in ballots by party affiliation, Democrats continue to embrace the voting method widely.
In Pennsylvania, over 580,000 Democrats have returned their mail ballots, in contrast to merely 254,000 Republicans. However, Republicans are gaining ground. In 2020, Republican mail ballots accounted for roughly 23% of the total mail votes in the state; this year, they represent about 27% of that total.
Yet, with two weeks remaining, dynamics could shift.
Another key state to observe is Nevada, which mailed ballots to every registered voter in both 2020 and 2024. As of Monday, approximately 53,000 Democrats had submitted mail ballots in contrast to about 37,000 Republicans. In 2020, roughly 106,000 Democrats and 47,000 Republicans had returned mail ballots by this time. Therefore, while Democrats maintain an edge in mail voting, Republicans have narrowed the gap in both Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Whether this translates to increased Republican turnout overall, or if more Democrats are opting for in-person voting, remains to be seen.
These Republican gains are occurring against the backdrop of mixed messages from the Trump campaign regarding mail voting.
While former President Donald Trump’s rallies prominently feature “vote early” banners and he frequently encourages his supporters to vote early, he simultaneously advocates for single-day voting and criticizes mail-in ballots. “The mail ballots didn’t work,” Trump remarked to a crowd in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, last Saturday, referencing the 2020 election.
In several pivotal states, Republicans are transitioning to early in-person voting.
In the 2020 election, both mail-in and in-person early voting were primarily dominated by Democrats.
In the few states that track party affiliation while facilitating in-person early voting, Republicans have altered this trend.
Consider North Carolina.
During the first three days of early voting in 2020, around 370,000 Democratic voters cast their ballots in person, compared to 248,000 Republicans, according to data from Michael McDonald, a politics professor at the University of Florida who monitors election statistics.
This year, approximately 300,000 Democrats have cast their ballots in person, whereas about 296,000 Republicans have done the same.
This shift indicates that the Trump campaign’s efforts to motivate supporters to vote early appear to be succeeding, particularly in North Carolina. This advantage should enhance Republicans’ get-out-the-vote initiatives as Election Day approaches, a benefit that Democrats predominantly enjoyed in 2020.
“Previously, it was merely a blue wave,” McDonald remarked. “Now, it’s considerably more balanced.”
Women are participating in early voting at rates surpassing men.
Across critical battleground states, a higher percentage of women than men are voting early.
In Georgia, 55% of the early votes have been cast by women. North Carolina shows a figure of 52%, and Michigan stands at 56%, based on data from McDonald.
This trend mirrors 2020 statistics. In Georgia, for instance, the early voting turnout for women was roughly 55% as well.
Historically, women have voted at slightly higher rates than men in most presidential elections; in 2020, about 68% of eligible women cast their votes, compared to 65% of eligible men.
However, as the race exhibits a growing gender divide, turnout rates by gender will be closely scrutinized throughout the early voting period.
