By Nate Cohn
In 2016, Donald Trump became the nominee of the Republican Party and ultimately secured the presidency, infamously labeling numerous Mexican immigrants as rapists and falsely asserting that Barack Obama was not born in America.
Fast forward eight years, and polls indicate he may indeed reclaim the presidency by performing better among Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican candidate since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
How is this achievable? This question frequently arises, and the latest New York Times/Siena College polls regarding Black and Hispanic voters across the country represent our best attempt to address it.
Like our earlier surveys this cycle, these polls reveal Trump performing unusually well for a Republican among Black and Hispanic voters. Overall, Kamala Harris is leading by 78% to 15% among Black voters and holds a 56-37 advantage among Hispanic voters.
In almost any metric, Trump is performing comparably or better among Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican in recent times. In 2020, Joe Biden enjoyed 92% support from Black major-party voters; his Hispanic support was 63%, based on Times estimates.
The reality is there are numerous explanations, and they are complex to disentangle. Here, I’ll share five insights derived from the survey. This list is not exhaustive — far from it. However, each element contributes to the overall narrative.
1. They are unfazed by the dog whistles.
To liberals, Trump’s stances on race, crime, and immigration appear as mere racist dog whistles.
Many Black and Hispanic voters share different sentiments; a surprising segment actually resonates with those so-called dog whistles.
— Close to 40% of Black voters and 43% of Hispanic voters express support for constructing a wall along the southern border. Additionally, 45% of Hispanic voters and 41% of Black voters back the deportation of immigrants residing in the country illegally.
— Half of Hispanic voters and almost half — 47% — of Black voters believe that crime in major cities represents a significant issue that has spiraled out of control. This perception is nearly identical to the views of white voters (50%) who feel the same way.
Support for Trump’s perspectives goes beyond racial and immigration issues. A majority of Black and Hispanic voters seem to align with his “America First” foreign policy, advocating for decreased focus on overseas issues in favor of domestic problems. Previous Times/Siena surveys have found a meaningful segment of Black and Hispanic voters concur with Trump on trade matters as well.
To put it another way: Much of Trump’s foundational populist, conservative message resonates with a significant portion of Black and Hispanic voters.
2. They aren’t offended; they might even find it amusing.
Certainly, Trump has not only employed dog whistles during his campaigns; at times, he has used a bullhorn.
Throughout his national political journey, he has offended countless Black and Hispanic voters, notably in recent statements claiming that Haitian refugees consume cats and dogs, and that undocumented immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.”
Nevertheless, a considerable minority of Black and Hispanic voters don’t appear particularly offended.
Overall, 20% of Black voters believe that those who are offended by Trump are overreacting, while 78% concur that there are legitimate reasons to feel offended.
In the same vein, 40% of Hispanic voters think that those taking offense to Trump are exaggerating, while 55% feel there are valid reasons to be offended. Importantly, only about one-third of Hispanic voters believe Trump is referring to them when discussing immigration problems.
Why are not more Black and Hispanic voters offended by Trump? One potential reason: He may not have offended them as much lately.
Another factor: A substantial number of Black and Hispanic voters seem to find Trump entertaining.
3. It’s about the economy, folks.
This is evident, yet it often receives insufficient attention.
Many assume that Democrats win Black and Hispanic voters exclusively due to the party’s dedication to racial equality, but the influence of economic self-interest should not be undervalued. Democrats began gaining Black and Hispanic support in the 1930s, not in the 1960s, largely due to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal that redefined the Democrats as a party for the working class, rather than merely the party of the Confederacy.
Only 20% of Hispanic voters and 26% of Black voters consider the current economic conditions to be good or excellent. More than half from both groups indicate they have “often” had to trim their grocery budgets over the past year due to costs.
This is critical for economically vulnerable voters — particularly those who previously voted Democratic under the assumption that the party represented their economic needs. Ultimately, the economy emerged as the most frequently mentioned issue among Black and Hispanic voters when asked what would primarily influence their vote this November.
When combined with Trump’s broader populist appeal, poll results show that the Democratic Party’s longstanding advantage as the party of the working class is diminishing. Black and Hispanic voters still regard Democrats as the party of the working class, but only by a 76-18 margin among Black voters and a 56-35 edge among Hispanics. This marks a significant change from September 2022, when Democrats held a 58-27 lead among Hispanic voters by this metric.
4. The decline of Hope and Change
Beyond the unfavorable economic landscape, there exists a deeper barrier for Democrats: a belief that voting for them will not yield much change.
Of all the survey’s queries, perhaps the most detrimental for Democrats pertained to the party’s success in “keeping its promises.” Merely 63% of Black voters and 46% of Hispanic voters affirmed that “keeping its promises” is a better descriptor for the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
Black and Hispanic voters do not necessarily question the Democrats’ intentions, but rather, they feel let down by the outcomes. Democrats received lower marks on inquiries about their capacity to “fix the problems facing people like me,” even as they excelled on questions like “understand the problems facing people like me.”
In the upcoming presidential election, there is little conviction that Harris will effect any meaningful change in their lives. Just 50% of Hispanic voters believe Harris will do more to assist them personally, whereas 37% think the same about Trump. Among Black voters, 73% feel Harris would provide more help, in contrast to 14% who believe Trump would.
5. For a new generation, Trump is simply ‘normal.’
The Times/Siena polls indicate Trump has gained significant ground among younger Black and Hispanic voters — particularly among younger Black and Hispanic men.
Overall, he leads with a 55-38 margin among Hispanic men aged 45 or younger. Harris maintains a lead among Black men younger than 45, but it’s only 69-27. The results for 18-to-29-year-old Hispanic and Black men reveal even more striking trends, though the sample sizes are limited.
In contrast, Harris enjoys much more typical Democratic leads among younger women, boasting a 68-30 advantage among Hispanic women under 45 and 87-6 among young Black women.
These young men matured long after the civil rights movement cultivated nearly unanimous Democratic backing within the Black voter base six decades ago. The youngest among them were toddlers during the Obama ’08 campaign and may lack vivid memories of Trump’s 2016 election. For them, Trump may represent “normalcy” — an established part of their lives, making it naturally challenging to cast him as an unprecedented “threat to democracy.”
While these historical moments solidified Democratic allegiances among older generations, today’s young Black and Hispanic voters are navigating a distinct political landscape. This landscape is characterized by political, economic, and cultural upheaval during the Trump presidency, coupled with the coronavirus pandemic, which brought about lockdowns and vaccination requirements; the Black Lives Matter movement; and the backlash against “woke” culture. They encountered escalating living costs as they began their first experiences of financial independence.
Regardless of the outcomes this November, today’s young Black and Hispanic voters are poised to become the routine Black and Hispanic voters of the future. Even if Trump’s support does not fully manifest in the election results this November, it is likely only a matter of time before Republicans make significant inroads.
