One of the choices on the ballot for Puerto Rico’s plebiscite on November 5th is referred to as sovereign free association, which represents Puerto Rican autonomy alongside a U.S.-Puerto Rico Compact of Free Association (COFA).
A COFA functions as a type of treaty between the United States and an independent nation. These agreements require periodic renewals and can be amended or terminated by either party. The U.S. currently holds COFAs with three independent states, which were recently renewed.
Before the renewal, in June 2023, a session of the U.S. House of Representatives Indo-Pacific Task Force scrutinized “How the Compacts of Free Association Support U.S. Interests and Counter the PRC’s Influence.”
The PRC’s influence?
In this context, PRC denotes “People’s Republic of China,” recognized increasingly as a significant threat to the United States. “To clarify,” stated the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), “the adversary isn’t the Chinese populace or those of Chinese descent or heritage. The risk emerges from the initiatives and policies of an authoritarian government.” The FBI further noted, “[a]t the same time, the Chinese government aims to become the world’s preeminent superpower through exploitative lending and business tactics, organized intellectual property theft, and bold cyber intrusions.”
China is involved in disputes and sovereignty issues with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. It has targeted Laos with exploitative lending schemes, faced off in border disagreements with India, and has unlawfully occupied Tibet for over fifty years. The reach of Chinese influence extends beyond the Indo-Pacific region, as evidenced by their intelligence operations in Cuba, and significant economic investments in the Caribbean and Latin America.
The three Freely Associated States (FAS)—Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia—represent the nearest region of U.S. military power to Asia. The FAS play a crucial role in the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China.
U.S. Military Rights Are Unilateral Under the COFAs
The transcript from the June 2023 hearing features remarks that illuminate the nuanced dynamics and true essence of the Compacts of Free Association. While proponents of the free association alternative in Puerto Rico often depict these agreements as bilateral arrangements that grant more authority to Puerto Rico in its dealings with the United States, insights from specialists at the hearing offer a starkly different narrative.
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), a leading Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, highlighted in his opening remarks that COFAs afford the United States “critical military access to the Pacific.”
Echoing this sentiment, retired Army Colonel Albert Short, who was the Chief Negotiator for the 2003 COFA renewals, testified that during COFA negotiations, WWII veteran Congress members emphasized the necessity of including the right of U.S. “strategic denial.” He elaborated on the concept of strategic denial, explaining that it entails “the United States’ capability to deny this area, encompassing not just the islands but also the surrounding waters and airspace from any third party.”
Colonel Short remarked that today, the U.S. retains the right of strategic denial “even if the Compact is revoked, meaning it’s a unilateral authority for the U.S. to proceed or discontinue.”
The unilateral U.S. authority over strategic choices in the freely associated states is not only unilateral but also lasting — “even if the Compact is revoked.”
<p”Distinct from the independent strategic denial I previously mentioned, while the Compact remains active, the FAS governments, the foreign Freely Associated State administrations, are obligated to refrain from any actions perceived by the United States to be detrimental to our defense and security agreements,” Short continued. “It is a very potent provision.”
Future Recommendations
Retired Colonel Grant Newsham from the U.S. Marine Corps offered projections for the future, stating straightforwardly, “We should enhance the U.S. military presence and solidify it as much as possible. China’s long-range ambitions include utilizing the area as a launch point for eastward expansion. They are already constructing the infrastructure along Latin America’s western coast.”
The hearings featured extensive dialogue regarding how financial support for the Freely Associated States contributed to the strategic significance of the COFAs. Given that the U.S. asserts a permanent right to military oversight over these nations, could financial support be withdrawn without repercussions?
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) shared his thoughts on this through a hypothetical scenario. “One approach to consider is imagining the cost of securing that region if one or more states conveyed to America, ‘Hey, you haven’t delivered on your promises. The Chinese are offering us substantial funds. We renounce the treaties.’ You would then need a far larger navy. You would require many more ships for coverage. You would literally have to deploy the Marines. You’d have the U.S. acting as an occupying force in that region, reminiscent of our role in the Caribbean in the 1920s. And that incurs significant costs.”
Newsham echoed similar sentiments, noting that the level of financial investment by the U.S. in the Freely Associated States is “a mere drop in the bucket” compared to the expenses of reestablishing strategic control over the area. He also remarked, “The humanitarian assistance/disaster relief aspect of this presents an excellent opportunity for us. Not only does it meet practical needs and address ongoing challenges, but it also facilitates the creation of necessary infrastructure from a security perspective. It allows for collaboration with our allies.”
Lessons for Puerto Rico
The discussions during the hearing spanned a variety of topics, including the necessity of respecting the Freely Associated States, the financial requirements of these island entities, and the long-term value of established relationships. However, the predominant focus of most dialogues and all expert testimonies was on the U.S. military and the related strategic significance of those ties.
The COFAs were established and have been renegotiated with the objective of maintaining U.S. military superiority.
Proponents of free association for Puerto Rico frequently emphasize ongoing U.S. citizenship, continued participation in federal programs, and potential reparations from the federal government—none of which align with current FAS relationships.
Advocates for free association in Puerto Rico also tend to overlook the military foundations of the COFAs.
A realistic comprehension of the Compacts of Free Association is essential for voters who can opt for this framework for Puerto Rico’s future.
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