By Patrick Kingsley, Julian E. Barnes, Ronen Bergman and Natan Odenheimer
In recent days, Israeli commando teams have conducted short incursions into Lebanon to prepare for a possible broader ground incursion, as stated by seven Israeli military personnel and officials, alongside a senior Western official. However, U.S. officials indicated on Monday that they believed any invasion would be limited in scope.
The Israeli and Western sources noted that the operations were aimed at collecting intelligence on Hezbollah’s positions along the border, along with identifying the Iranian-aligned group’s tunnels and military assets to facilitate potential air or ground strikes against them. The officials spoke under the condition of anonymity to address a delicate military issue. The Israeli military opted not to comment.
On Monday evening, Israel’s Cabinet was convening to deliberate the timing and feasibility of launching a significant ground assault in southern Lebanon, marking Israel’s first such operation there in almost twenty years. Israel had occupied southern Lebanon from 1982 until 2000 and made a brief incursion again in 2006 during a month-long conflict with Hezbollah.
U.S. officials reported on Monday that they believed they had convinced Israel to refrain from executing a large-scale ground invasion. This consensus emerged after intensive discussions over the weekend. The United States observed indications that Israel was preparing for an incursion into Lebanon, and several American officials expressed concerns that a sizable ground operation was on the verge of occurring.
Following the negotiations, U.S. officials, who requested to remain anonymous to discuss sensitive intelligence and diplomatic matters, conveyed their belief that Israel intended to undertake smaller, targeted incursions into southern Lebanon instead.
Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, suggested that ground troops could be deployed into Lebanon. On Monday, he informed mayors from Israeli border towns that “the next stage of the war against Hezbollah is about to begin.”
In a statement from his office, Gallant affirmed that the upcoming phase would “serve as a crucial factor in altering the security landscape,” enabling the many Israelis who have fled from Hezbollah rocket fire over the past year to return to their residences.
Hezbollah stated on Monday that its forces would respond to Israeli troops if a full-scale invasion occurred. “We will counter any eventuality, and we are prepared should the Israelis decide to enter on the ground,” declared Sheikh Naim Qassem, Nasrallah’s deputy, in a televised announcement.
Officials indicated that if a larger operation took place, Israel would likely aim to dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure near the border, primarily through a series of intense cross-border strikes, rather than advancing deeply into Lebanon and occupying large territories. The rugged terrain of southern Lebanon, characterized by steep valleys, presents challenges for an invading army, which may have influenced Israeli military strategies.
These raids and strategic plans suggest that Israel is attempting to exploit the current instability within Hezbollah, following the recent elimination of many of the group’s senior leaders, including its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah.
Despite the significant loss in Hezbollah’s upper command, the organization continues to maintain control over substantial portions of the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border, where Israel claims the group has established a vast network of military positions, rocket launchers, and tunnel systems that threaten residents in northern Israel.
Here are additional key points:
— Reviving a cease-fire: Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for a cease-fire on Monday and the enforcement of Resolution 1701, a 2006 United Nations Security Council agreement requiring that southern Lebanon, south of the Litani River, be monitored by U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese military while being cleared of Hezbollah fighters. Mikati expressed readiness to deploy the army and work in conjunction with international peacekeepers in the area, as reported by Lebanon’s National News Agency.
— Inflaming Iran: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video in English directed at the Iranian populace, stating, “The people of Iran should know — Israel stands with you.” He reiterated his threats against the Iranian regime, declaring, “There is no place we will avoid to safeguard our citizens and our nation.”
— Hamas official killed: Hamas announced on Monday that its leader in Lebanon, Fatah Sharif, was killed alongside his family in an airstrike targeting a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military indicated he had been responsible for coordinating Hamas’ relations with Hezbollah. The United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, stated that Sharif had been an agency employee but was placed on unpaid leave in March following allegations regarding his political actions.
— Hezbollah’s future: Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, announced in a televised address on Monday that the group would appoint a successor to Hassan Nasrallah “at the earliest opportunity.” Israel eliminated Nasrallah on Friday during a bombardment in a crowded neighborhood near Beirut and conducted numerous additional strikes on Hezbollah sites on Sunday.
— Beirut blast: Israel confirmed its involvement in an explosion in Beirut that impacted a residential structure overnight, marking the first known Israeli attack in Lebanon’s capital since the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a militant faction operating from Lebanon and Gaza, stated that three of its members perished in the incident.
