By Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik
In a recent debate against former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris made a significant impression on voters, according to new polling from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College. However, she has not yet managed to establish a clear edge in the presidential campaign.
The national race is tied. In the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania, Harris maintains a 4 percentage point lead—an advantage that has remained consistent since early August. She has regained much of the fundamental Democratic coalition in the state, garnering support from Black voters, younger voters, and women.
Harris received significantly better feedback for her debate performance than Trump, with 67% of likely voters in the U.S. affirming her performance favorably compared to 40% for Trump. Across all demographic segments—including racial backgrounds, age groups, and educational levels even among white voters without a college degree, who typically back Trump—she received positive assessments.
However, this alone has not shifted a race that seems poised to become a close contest this autumn following a summer full of chaos and disruption.
Nationwide, Trump and Harris are tied at 47%. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads 50% to 46%. The polling was largely conducted prior to the second attempted assassination on Trump that occurred on Sunday.
The first debate for the 2024 general election, featuring Trump and President Joe Biden in June, dramatically altered the political landscape, leading many Democrats to lose faith in Biden’s capability at age 81 to campaign effectively and serve a second term, resulting in a change of candidates.
The new polls underscore how rapidly Democrats have rallied around Harris and closed what was once perceived as a significant enthusiasm gap.
Despite this, Harris still faces essential challenges heading into the fall, particularly as a larger portion of voters deem her too liberal compared to those who regard Trump as too conservative.
The percentage of voters wishing to learn more about Harris remained almost unchanged before and after the debate, indicating she may have missed an opportunity to dispel doubts or offer further insights to the electorate.
“I was curious to see how she would respond to questions during the debate, but it felt to me that she mainly evaded answering; she didn’t provide any real responses,” mentioned Tyler Slabaugh, 24, a medical sales professional in Grand Haven, Michigan. He abstained from voting in 2020 but intends to back Trump this year. “I didn’t really grasp her plans,” he remarked regarding Harris.
Widespread concerns regarding the economy persist. In Pennsylvania, 77% of likely voters rated the economy as poor or fair, while only 22% considered it excellent or good. This negative sentiment persisted even in vital Democratic regions such as Philadelphia and its suburbs.
Trump also encounters challenges, particularly among the college-educated white voter demographic that populates such suburbs. His support within this group has plummeted to 36% both nationally and in Pennsylvania, compared to 42% in 2020, as per a Pew Research Center analysis of validated 2020 voters.
“He just continues to lose control and ramble, which is not what I look for in a leader,” said Paul Irwin-Dudek, 47, a nonprofit executive in Nutley, New Jersey, who supports Harris. “She was in command during the debate,” he remarked.
It is surprising that Harris performed better in Pennsylvania than nationally, as it has been one of the most competitive states since 2016 and generally trends more Republican than the national average.
However, in 2024, Democrats — initially with Biden and now with Harris — have shown significant appeal among white voters, and the Pennsylvania electorate is predominantly white, compared to the national average.
In the recent polls, Harris was supported by 46% of white voters in Pennsylvania. In 2020, Biden secured 43% of white voters nationally; Hillary Clinton garnered only 39% of their support in 2016.
The current polls align with other research indicating that Harris’ favorability has increased in the state. Earlier in July, only 42% of voters rated her positively in Pennsylvania; now, that number has climbed to 51% — a significant improvement. Pennsylvanians have been inundated with heavy advertising for and against Harris since she entered the race on July 21.
Trump’s approval ratings have also improved, with 47% viewing him favorably on a national scale, which is higher than earlier this year, even when he was in the lead against Biden.
A comparable percentage — 48% — express a favorable opinion of Harris nationally.
The debate attracted over 67 million viewers, making it the most-watched broadcast of the year aside from the Super Bowl. Harris performed exceptionally well among the 80% of voters who reported either watching live or viewing clips later, winning in that demographic. Trump held the majority among the much smaller percentage who had only heard about the debate or had no information about it at all.
The two candidates presented starkly different perspectives. However, the enduring divide in American policy was evident in the polling results.
The proportions of voters who prefer Trump on issues like the economy (54%) and immigration (54%) remained nearly the same as before the debate.
“I don’t really think she accomplished anything regarding the border during her time as vice president; it felt more like a joke,” commented Mitchell Wallace, 33, a wastewater technician in Englewood, Florida. He is an independent who voted for Trump in 2020 and intends to do so again, referring to him as the “lesser of two evils.”
The proportions of voters who trust Harris more regarding abortion (also 54%) and defending democracy (50%) were also stable post-debate.
Black voters exhibited the highest enthusiasm for Harris’ debate performance, with 87% stating she performed well—this was higher than the percentage of Black voters who indicated they would vote for her.
Among vital independent voters, Trump’s debate performance was poorly received, with only 8% nationally and 4% in Pennsylvania believing he did very well. In Pennsylvania, 65% of independents felt Harris performed well, whereas only 30% said the same about Trump.
Trump received higher evaluations than Harris for being genuine in his beliefs and for earning respect from foreign leaders.
Harris increased her lead over Trump regarding perceptions of intelligence. In August, Pennsylvania voters were 10 percentage points more inclined to describe Harris as “intelligent” compared to Trump. Following the debate, that gap has now widened to 18 percentage points.
