A recent survey conducted by Gaither International among voters in Puerto Rico uncovered an unexpected degree of misunderstanding regarding Puerto Rico’s political standing.
Current status of Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is classified as an unincorporated territory of the United States. Although this is legally clear, only two-thirds of the participants in the survey acknowledged this fact.
Conversely, 11% of respondents believed Puerto Rico to be an independent nation. An additional 17% did not regard Puerto Rico as either a nation or a territory; this might indicate those who mistakenly think Puerto Rico has a “compact of free association” with the United States or consider it an “enhanced commonwealth.”
Researchers observed that merely 10% of individuals without a high school diploma could correctly identify Puerto Rico as a territory. Nevertheless, even among those possessing postgraduate degrees, only 82% provided the correct answer.
Future status of Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico is set to conduct another local plebiscite in November 2024, offering the three options mentioned in the Puerto Rico Status Act:
- statehood
- independence
- sovereign free association (independence with a free association option)
When asked which option they intended to support during the vote, those surveyed indicated a preference for statehood:
- statehood: 45%
- independence: 11%
- sovereign free association: 25%
It is worth noting that 11% of the voters surveyed asserted that Puerto Rico is already an independent entity. Furthermore, 19% of respondents to this inquiry did not select one of the three given choices.
However, respondents’ answers shifted when they were asked about their potential vote for statehood versus independence.
- statehood: 73%
- independence: 27%
Understanding free association as independence
Although the raw data has not been publicly released, it appears that only a third of those who opted for free association were prepared to accept independence. This implies that voters might not fully comprehend that free association with the United States is, fundamentally, a form of independence.
Currently, three nations hold free association agreements with the United States, and all are recognized as independent countries. While various definitions of “free association” have existed throughout different times and locales, there is no evidence to suggest that Puerto Rico could negotiate any form of relationship apart from independence under a Compact of Free Association. The federal government has consistently turned down any proposals advocating for a “best of both worlds” position.
Independence and Sovereign Free Association: What’s the Difference?
A letter from Dana Boente, Acting Deputy Attorney General of the Department of Justice in 2017, clarified that the federal government has indeed rejected previous “enhanced Commonwealth” proposals as unconstitutional, which would have conferred Puerto Rico a status beyond the territory clause but short of complete independence….[A] vote for ‘Free Association’ signifies a vote for complete and unrestricted independence.”
Importance of clarity
The plebiscite planned for November serves as a referendum, representing the collective opinions of voters that is non-binding for Congress and is not anticipated to alter Puerto Rico’s status. A binding vote is projected for the future. Prior to such a vote, it is crucial for voters in Puerto Rico to have a clear understanding of their choices. The findings from the Gaither International survey indicate that some voters may be misinformed regarding the implications of “sovereign free association” and might not grasp that it fundamentally represents independence.
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